Grahamallac breaks out

2 weeks since I've blogged..


Alot has happened in those weeks.


Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..


Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..


That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.


Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.


That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.


Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.





The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.



Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.



On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.

It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.



On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.



Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.

The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.

Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.

Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10