Bucs offensive woes, Play Ratio

The Bucs offense has been less than average this year, they are 19th in the NFL with 19.6 yards per game. When you look at the numbers you see an offense with a lot of potential, that beats themselves.



Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.



Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.



You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...



The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.



It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).



With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.



I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..



New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:



The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.

The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.

The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.

The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.

The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.

Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.

(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)



This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...



A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..

The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.

The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.

Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.