I think last week I was grossly mistaken at how good of a football team the Texans really are. I must apologize to Houston, my birth town. The Bucs were actually beat last week, for the first time since the Colts handed them their asses earlier in the year. The Texans controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage, for the majority of the game, and had a better game plan, bottom line. I dont think I even saw a game plan from Gruden in this game. The Bucs just looked like they didn't know what they wanted to do on offense. They wouldn't commit to the run, or the pass, and seemed to do both at inopportune times. How do you turn a second and one into a 4th down punt when you have a guy like Earnest Graham running the ball who most of the times falls forward for at least a yard. The Texans played the run well, but the Bucs never really commited to it. Instead on third and one you call for your backup quarterback to throw deep to Joey Galloway. McCown played well, but made just enough bad throws, two particularly big overthrows, to lose it. 2nd and one = run the ball!! 3rd and one = run the ball!! This has been what Tampa has been about all year, smart football, get first downs, trudge down the field, eat up clock, put points on the board.. They were unable to do this against a Texans defense that, statistically, is not very good. It goes to show that statistics aren't always the best measure of a team. I think Houston's D is a little underratted, especially with the rise of Mario Williams this year. I give Houston props, everyone was shouting at them last year, Mario Williams first round over Reggie Bush? It is turning out to be a good decision for Houston, and Reggie Bush is slowly beginning to prove to us that he does not have the balls to be an NFL starting running back... Back to my focus though, the Bucs need just win this week against a pathetic, in all phases of football, Atlanta Falcons..
This week the Bucs gameplan should be to have a gameplan, or at least one they will stick to. If the Bucs hope to have success in the playoffs this year, past the first round, they are gonna have to show that they can muster up some offense. The Falcons defense is 24th in the NFL is yards allowed per game (343.5 ypg) and 22nd in the NFL with points allowed per game (23.5 ppg). The Falcons pass defense is 19th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and 21st in the NFL in touchdowns allowed per game, while the rush defense is 27th in yards allowed per game and 12th in touchdowns allowed per game. The Bucs need an offense that is clicking going into the playoffs. Their defense has been excellent all year, but a good offense makes them that much better and takes some of the pressure off of them. Their defense is noticeably tired. We aren't seeing the big hits from guys like Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips we were seeing earlier in the year. Barrett Ruud started the year off great, and was leading the NFL in tackles for the first four or five weeks of the season. Since then he has dropped to 15th in the NFL in tackles. The Bucs no doubt have a playoff quality defense, I would seriously consider them as the best defense in the league, with minimal bias, if not place them in the top 3. I dont quite see that playoff quality in their offense. The Bucs won the super bowl in 2003 with a sub par offense and great defense... However, there were no 2007 Patriots or Cowboys to beat that year. The Bucs defense is good but will not beat a Patriots team or Cowboys team without offense. So lets get some offense going against the Falcons, the momentum must begin somewhere, why not at home, against a division rival, to win the NFC South crown??
Jeff Garcia returns to the lineup and leads the Bucs NFL 19th ranked offense in yards per game, NFL 19th ranked offense in points per game against a weak Falcons defense... A Falcons team that is in shambles.. If the Bucs can't win this game, I am going to find it very difficult to place the Bucs past the second round of the playoffs, that is if they make it out of the first. This is a must win for the Bucs, not only to win the division, but for team morale, for momentum, for many reasons. I have a feeling they are gonna get it done..
The Bucs need to put their gameplan in place, and follow it.. I say the gameplan be pound the ball, pound the ball, pound the ball.. Garcia short pass, Garcia short pass, pound the ball, set up the deep play.. Tampa has done it effectively this year, with some consistency, but not with the consistency of teams like New England and Dallas. Coming down to the late phases of the season, consistency, momentum, rhythm are huge factors.. The Bucs need to start it here so it can carry over into the playoffs..
Jeff Garcia inserts leadership into the Buccaneer offense. There is no saying how important he is to the success of their offense. Garcia plays smart, and has all year. He hadn't thrown a pick going into week 6 I believe, and has only thrown 3 picks all year. Thats less than Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I don't put Garcia in their category when it comes to big times pass plays, although he has hit a few this year, but when it comes to smarts he is right up there with the elite QB's. Garcia will have to be the catalyst for a Buccaneer offensive surge if the Bucs hope to go deep into the playoffs. Teams have to pay extra attention to the Buccaneers pass game with Garcia in there, this opens up the Bucs rush game.. Earnest Graham will need Garcia to be consistent, and teams to recognize Tampa's ability to pass if he hopes to have future success, especially in the playoffs. Atlanta is the perfect place to get this started.
Tampa's defense will surely showup to play, but will the offense? The story of this weekends game, in Tampa Bay, 1:00 EDT, is the Buccaneer offense. They gotta show the football world something.
Final Score Tampa Bay 38, Atlanta 24
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Bucs offensive woes, Play Ratio
The Bucs offense has been less than average this year, they are 19th in the NFL with 19.6 yards per game. When you look at the numbers you see an offense with a lot of potential, that beats themselves.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Cap it off - Buc Philosophy
It hasn't been Tampa's offense that has been winning them games this season. Tampa Bay has been playing Tampa Bay football. Their defense beats up on opponents and is complemented by a consistent, pounding, and mistake-free offense. Tampa's offense has been consistent in that you know what to expect from them. They like to get a lead and then put together time consuming drive. Jeff Garcia has been able to use the pass like a short rush this year and Earnest Graham has shown that he knows how to finish a game. Tampa likes to pound the ball throughout the game, and when the run game starts to work Tampa stays with it. They especially like to pound it late in games when the defense is tired. Tampa doesn't have a big-play offense. Their offense is designed differently. They have an offense that is designed for long time-consuming drives. Their stats reflect this. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio and their offense has held the ball for just under 30 minutes a game. Tampa offense doesnt put up huge numbers but it is not a quick score offense. Tampa's offense will never put up huge numbers, not as long as John Gruden is the head coach. Tampa Bay does not do well in an offensive shootout. It is not their style. Tampa relies on their defense to shut down the opposing offense. Their offense then comes on the field to put together long scoring drives that eat up alot of clock, all the while keeping their D fresh. This is a great strategy but has bitten Tampa in the ass a few times this season. With this strategy there is not much room for error. A few times Tampa has put together these great ten to twelve minute drives and then turned the ball over at the end of them. Also you would expect a drive this long to end in a touchdown and when they end in field goals, more than a few times a game, that is counter-productive. If you have these long time consuming drives you may only have five possesions a game. If you turn it over once and all the others are ending in field goals then your only looking at 12 points a game. A good example is the Detroit game. Tampa had some great drives in that game. A few of them ended in turnovers, a few of them in field goals. It only took three quick scores from Detroit to win a game that Tampa should have won. You gotta cap off the drive.
Grahamallac breaks out
2 weeks since I've blogged..
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
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