I think last week I was grossly mistaken at how good of a football team the Texans really are. I must apologize to Houston, my birth town. The Bucs were actually beat last week, for the first time since the Colts handed them their asses earlier in the year. The Texans controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage, for the majority of the game, and had a better game plan, bottom line. I dont think I even saw a game plan from Gruden in this game. The Bucs just looked like they didn't know what they wanted to do on offense. They wouldn't commit to the run, or the pass, and seemed to do both at inopportune times. How do you turn a second and one into a 4th down punt when you have a guy like Earnest Graham running the ball who most of the times falls forward for at least a yard. The Texans played the run well, but the Bucs never really commited to it. Instead on third and one you call for your backup quarterback to throw deep to Joey Galloway. McCown played well, but made just enough bad throws, two particularly big overthrows, to lose it. 2nd and one = run the ball!! 3rd and one = run the ball!! This has been what Tampa has been about all year, smart football, get first downs, trudge down the field, eat up clock, put points on the board.. They were unable to do this against a Texans defense that, statistically, is not very good. It goes to show that statistics aren't always the best measure of a team. I think Houston's D is a little underratted, especially with the rise of Mario Williams this year. I give Houston props, everyone was shouting at them last year, Mario Williams first round over Reggie Bush? It is turning out to be a good decision for Houston, and Reggie Bush is slowly beginning to prove to us that he does not have the balls to be an NFL starting running back... Back to my focus though, the Bucs need just win this week against a pathetic, in all phases of football, Atlanta Falcons..
This week the Bucs gameplan should be to have a gameplan, or at least one they will stick to. If the Bucs hope to have success in the playoffs this year, past the first round, they are gonna have to show that they can muster up some offense. The Falcons defense is 24th in the NFL is yards allowed per game (343.5 ypg) and 22nd in the NFL with points allowed per game (23.5 ppg). The Falcons pass defense is 19th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and 21st in the NFL in touchdowns allowed per game, while the rush defense is 27th in yards allowed per game and 12th in touchdowns allowed per game. The Bucs need an offense that is clicking going into the playoffs. Their defense has been excellent all year, but a good offense makes them that much better and takes some of the pressure off of them. Their defense is noticeably tired. We aren't seeing the big hits from guys like Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips we were seeing earlier in the year. Barrett Ruud started the year off great, and was leading the NFL in tackles for the first four or five weeks of the season. Since then he has dropped to 15th in the NFL in tackles. The Bucs no doubt have a playoff quality defense, I would seriously consider them as the best defense in the league, with minimal bias, if not place them in the top 3. I dont quite see that playoff quality in their offense. The Bucs won the super bowl in 2003 with a sub par offense and great defense... However, there were no 2007 Patriots or Cowboys to beat that year. The Bucs defense is good but will not beat a Patriots team or Cowboys team without offense. So lets get some offense going against the Falcons, the momentum must begin somewhere, why not at home, against a division rival, to win the NFC South crown??
Jeff Garcia returns to the lineup and leads the Bucs NFL 19th ranked offense in yards per game, NFL 19th ranked offense in points per game against a weak Falcons defense... A Falcons team that is in shambles.. If the Bucs can't win this game, I am going to find it very difficult to place the Bucs past the second round of the playoffs, that is if they make it out of the first. This is a must win for the Bucs, not only to win the division, but for team morale, for momentum, for many reasons. I have a feeling they are gonna get it done..
The Bucs need to put their gameplan in place, and follow it.. I say the gameplan be pound the ball, pound the ball, pound the ball.. Garcia short pass, Garcia short pass, pound the ball, set up the deep play.. Tampa has done it effectively this year, with some consistency, but not with the consistency of teams like New England and Dallas. Coming down to the late phases of the season, consistency, momentum, rhythm are huge factors.. The Bucs need to start it here so it can carry over into the playoffs..
Jeff Garcia inserts leadership into the Buccaneer offense. There is no saying how important he is to the success of their offense. Garcia plays smart, and has all year. He hadn't thrown a pick going into week 6 I believe, and has only thrown 3 picks all year. Thats less than Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I don't put Garcia in their category when it comes to big times pass plays, although he has hit a few this year, but when it comes to smarts he is right up there with the elite QB's. Garcia will have to be the catalyst for a Buccaneer offensive surge if the Bucs hope to go deep into the playoffs. Teams have to pay extra attention to the Buccaneers pass game with Garcia in there, this opens up the Bucs rush game.. Earnest Graham will need Garcia to be consistent, and teams to recognize Tampa's ability to pass if he hopes to have future success, especially in the playoffs. Atlanta is the perfect place to get this started.
Tampa's defense will surely showup to play, but will the offense? The story of this weekends game, in Tampa Bay, 1:00 EDT, is the Buccaneer offense. They gotta show the football world something.
Final Score Tampa Bay 38, Atlanta 24
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Bucs offensive woes, Play Ratio
The Bucs offense has been less than average this year, they are 19th in the NFL with 19.6 yards per game. When you look at the numbers you see an offense with a lot of potential, that beats themselves.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Cap it off - Buc Philosophy
It hasn't been Tampa's offense that has been winning them games this season. Tampa Bay has been playing Tampa Bay football. Their defense beats up on opponents and is complemented by a consistent, pounding, and mistake-free offense. Tampa's offense has been consistent in that you know what to expect from them. They like to get a lead and then put together time consuming drive. Jeff Garcia has been able to use the pass like a short rush this year and Earnest Graham has shown that he knows how to finish a game. Tampa likes to pound the ball throughout the game, and when the run game starts to work Tampa stays with it. They especially like to pound it late in games when the defense is tired. Tampa doesn't have a big-play offense. Their offense is designed differently. They have an offense that is designed for long time-consuming drives. Their stats reflect this. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio and their offense has held the ball for just under 30 minutes a game. Tampa offense doesnt put up huge numbers but it is not a quick score offense. Tampa's offense will never put up huge numbers, not as long as John Gruden is the head coach. Tampa Bay does not do well in an offensive shootout. It is not their style. Tampa relies on their defense to shut down the opposing offense. Their offense then comes on the field to put together long scoring drives that eat up alot of clock, all the while keeping their D fresh. This is a great strategy but has bitten Tampa in the ass a few times this season. With this strategy there is not much room for error. A few times Tampa has put together these great ten to twelve minute drives and then turned the ball over at the end of them. Also you would expect a drive this long to end in a touchdown and when they end in field goals, more than a few times a game, that is counter-productive. If you have these long time consuming drives you may only have five possesions a game. If you turn it over once and all the others are ending in field goals then your only looking at 12 points a game. A good example is the Detroit game. Tampa had some great drives in that game. A few of them ended in turnovers, a few of them in field goals. It only took three quick scores from Detroit to win a game that Tampa should have won. You gotta cap off the drive.
Grahamallac breaks out
2 weeks since I've blogged..
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Where its at
First off I would like to thank the beaten (previously 0-8) St. Louis Rams for laying the smackdown on the hopeful Saints... sorry New Orleans it's not your year... The Saints go marching down... down a game in the standings... and they lost to a team who hadn't won a game all year... consistency...
Secondly I would like to thank the Atlanta Falcons (who the Bucs play this week) and the Golden Boy Joey Harrington for stomping the panthers into the mud... and smearing Vinny Testaverde's dusty old face in it.
The Bucs are alone atop the NFC South and both the aforementioned teams had a chance last weekend to tie them up there. Instead these teams dropped games and thats really good for Tampa.
In fact of the nine times that Tampa has been in first place this late in the season, they have made the playoffs eight.
The Bucs face off with the Falcons this weekend in Atlanta, but it doesn't matter. Falcons fans are still having an identity crisis after finding out the face of their team was a two-bit criminal, a mindless psychopath who would have killed people next had he not been caught. Seriously, isn't killing animals one of the first hints of sociopathic behavior? So Atlanta goes from a Stone Cold Dog Killer to a Golden Piano Player?. Are you gonna tell me the fans are excited? As if finding out your star player got pleasure in murdering animals wasn't enough the Falcons owner Arthur Blank goes and signs proven failure Joey Harrington. Why didn't they sign Testaverde? Vinny was available up until Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme went down. The Falcons fans don't care so this might as well be a home game for the Bucs.
If the Bucs can shut down the run like they did the other week, and they did so against a much better rushing attack in the Cardinals Edgerrin James, then they should win the game. It's not like I should be worried about Joey Harrington hurting us through the air, should I?
The Buccaneers pass defense is now rated 3rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd in pass touchdowns in allowed with six. The Seahawks defense has only allowed five pass touchdowns this year but are 20th in the NFL in yards per game against them. The only defenses with less yards per game against them are Pittsburgh and Indianpolis yet both these teams have given up 10 and 8 touchdowns through the air respectively. With these statistics I make my argument for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the best passing defense in the NFL. That is why I'm not too worried about the Golden Boy having a "breakout" game.
The Buccaneers rush defense is ranked 18th in the NFL in yards per game but only 8 teams have allowed less than the Bucs 3.8 yards per rush. The Bucs are tied for 26th with nine rushing touchdowns allowed but only seven teams have had more rushing plays run on them. The Bucs defense in general is right in the middle at 17th in the NFL in total plays run against them (558). Only 3 teams however allow less than the Buccaneers 4.6 yards per play. Only three teams have allowed less than the Buccaneers 144 points this season and therefore only three teams have less than the Buccaneers 16 points per game average allowed.
The Falcons are 30th in the NFL as they only average 15 points per game. Even the 0-9 Dolphins have scored more points then the Falcons. The Falcons pass attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL in yards per game and 27th in the NFL in touchdowns per game. The Falcons pass attack has a rating of 70.8 while the Buccaneers opponents are averaging a pass rating of 70.9. The Falcons stand to gain a tenth of a percentage point in their passer rating in this game, WOOOO-HOOOO. Thats actually a joke. There is no correlation between the statement I made two statements ago and the last one. Only two teams in the NFL have held opponents to a lower passer rating than the Bucs have.
If the Falcons are to win this game it is going to have to come from somewhere other than their offense. Falcons CB Deangelo Hall is always a threat to pick one and run it back. They should think about putting Hall back on special teams as well to see if they can make something happen. The one bright spot in the Falcons team has been how many turnovers they have been able to force this year. The Falcons are tops in the NFC with a +9 turnover ratio, meaning they have taken the ball away from their opponent 9 more times then they have given the ball to their opponent. Tampa has been efficient in the turnover department this year with the exception of a two game strech when they went -5 in the turnover column. The Bucs are still +3 in the turnover column and fifth in the NFC. If you take away that two game strech where they went -5 then they have been one of the most efficient teams in the NFL this year when it comes to turnovers.
WHERE ITS AT
A coach always wants to be up in the turnover column at the end of the game. If you have a dynamic offense then it is not always necessary, a team like the Patriots can turn the ball over and still win games (even though they never do, 1st in the NFL with +11 turnover ratio). It is very important for the Bucs to win the turnover battle in this upcoming game with the Falcons.
If the Bucs win the turnover battle, they win the game... Bottom line.
If the Bucs don't turn the ball over at all they will hold the Falcons under 6 points.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31 Atlanta 3
P.S. Michael Pittman is back!! Naples, Florida native Earnest Graham remains the teams starter..
Secondly I would like to thank the Atlanta Falcons (who the Bucs play this week) and the Golden Boy Joey Harrington for stomping the panthers into the mud... and smearing Vinny Testaverde's dusty old face in it.
The Bucs are alone atop the NFC South and both the aforementioned teams had a chance last weekend to tie them up there. Instead these teams dropped games and thats really good for Tampa.
In fact of the nine times that Tampa has been in first place this late in the season, they have made the playoffs eight.
The Bucs face off with the Falcons this weekend in Atlanta, but it doesn't matter. Falcons fans are still having an identity crisis after finding out the face of their team was a two-bit criminal, a mindless psychopath who would have killed people next had he not been caught. Seriously, isn't killing animals one of the first hints of sociopathic behavior? So Atlanta goes from a Stone Cold Dog Killer to a Golden Piano Player?. Are you gonna tell me the fans are excited? As if finding out your star player got pleasure in murdering animals wasn't enough the Falcons owner Arthur Blank goes and signs proven failure Joey Harrington. Why didn't they sign Testaverde? Vinny was available up until Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme went down. The Falcons fans don't care so this might as well be a home game for the Bucs.
If the Bucs can shut down the run like they did the other week, and they did so against a much better rushing attack in the Cardinals Edgerrin James, then they should win the game. It's not like I should be worried about Joey Harrington hurting us through the air, should I?
The Buccaneers pass defense is now rated 3rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd in pass touchdowns in allowed with six. The Seahawks defense has only allowed five pass touchdowns this year but are 20th in the NFL in yards per game against them. The only defenses with less yards per game against them are Pittsburgh and Indianpolis yet both these teams have given up 10 and 8 touchdowns through the air respectively. With these statistics I make my argument for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the best passing defense in the NFL. That is why I'm not too worried about the Golden Boy having a "breakout" game.
The Buccaneers rush defense is ranked 18th in the NFL in yards per game but only 8 teams have allowed less than the Bucs 3.8 yards per rush. The Bucs are tied for 26th with nine rushing touchdowns allowed but only seven teams have had more rushing plays run on them. The Bucs defense in general is right in the middle at 17th in the NFL in total plays run against them (558). Only 3 teams however allow less than the Buccaneers 4.6 yards per play. Only three teams have allowed less than the Buccaneers 144 points this season and therefore only three teams have less than the Buccaneers 16 points per game average allowed.
The Falcons are 30th in the NFL as they only average 15 points per game. Even the 0-9 Dolphins have scored more points then the Falcons. The Falcons pass attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL in yards per game and 27th in the NFL in touchdowns per game. The Falcons pass attack has a rating of 70.8 while the Buccaneers opponents are averaging a pass rating of 70.9. The Falcons stand to gain a tenth of a percentage point in their passer rating in this game, WOOOO-HOOOO. Thats actually a joke. There is no correlation between the statement I made two statements ago and the last one. Only two teams in the NFL have held opponents to a lower passer rating than the Bucs have.
If the Falcons are to win this game it is going to have to come from somewhere other than their offense. Falcons CB Deangelo Hall is always a threat to pick one and run it back. They should think about putting Hall back on special teams as well to see if they can make something happen. The one bright spot in the Falcons team has been how many turnovers they have been able to force this year. The Falcons are tops in the NFC with a +9 turnover ratio, meaning they have taken the ball away from their opponent 9 more times then they have given the ball to their opponent. Tampa has been efficient in the turnover department this year with the exception of a two game strech when they went -5 in the turnover column. The Bucs are still +3 in the turnover column and fifth in the NFC. If you take away that two game strech where they went -5 then they have been one of the most efficient teams in the NFL this year when it comes to turnovers.
WHERE ITS AT
A coach always wants to be up in the turnover column at the end of the game. If you have a dynamic offense then it is not always necessary, a team like the Patriots can turn the ball over and still win games (even though they never do, 1st in the NFL with +11 turnover ratio). It is very important for the Bucs to win the turnover battle in this upcoming game with the Falcons.
If the Bucs win the turnover battle, they win the game... Bottom line.
If the Bucs don't turn the ball over at all they will hold the Falcons under 6 points.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31 Atlanta 3
P.S. Michael Pittman is back!! Naples, Florida native Earnest Graham remains the teams starter..
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Chinese Restaurant Episode II
The 4-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 4:05 p.m. The game will be played at the Buccaneers home, Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL.
Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).
Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.
Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.
***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***
Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.
***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***
The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.
Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense
Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.
Summary
Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.
Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.
Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.
Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.
X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.
In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13
Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).
Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.
Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.
***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***
Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.
***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***
The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.
Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense
Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.
Summary
Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.
Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.
Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.
Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.
X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.
In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13
Monday, October 22, 2007
showing signs of promise
The Bucs lost to the Lions 23-16 yesterday in their toughest loss of the season.
Apparently Mike Golic, co-host of ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning radio show, didn't look at the numbers of the game as he has the Detroit Lions as the fourth best team in the NFC after this loss.
This was a fluke loss for Tampa. I know all that matters is wins but take away two plays and Tampa would have dominated the game.
Tampa outgained Detroit by 144 yards on offense as they put up 422 yards to Detroit's 278. Time of posession also went Tampa's way as Tampa had an 11 minute advantage in time of posession, Tampa had 35 minutes 50 seconds to Detroit 24 minutes and 10 seconds. Tampa ran 30 more plays on offense than Detroit did, Tampa ran 77 plays to Detroit's 47 plays. If you control the clock, run more offensive plays, and gain more yardage than a team then just basic logic tells me that you should win.
Tampa had their first drive stalled and their punt blocked to begin the game. Detroit took advantage and put a field through the uprights. Tampa's second drive showed some promise, they were moving the ball, then Jeff Garcia fumbles and Detroit makes them pay. Detroit scored a touchdown and were off to a quick 10 point lead. Tampa's next drive took time off the clock and ended with a Ike Hilliard touchdown reception. Tampa forced Detroit to punt on their next drive then drove down the field again only to miss the game tying field goal. They then allowed Detroit to drive close enough to put a field goal through before the half. At halftime the score was 13-6. Tampa stopped Detroit's first drive of the 3rd quarter but werent able to do anything with their own first drive of the 3rd, it ended with another punt. The following possession Detroit drove down for another field goal, score Det 16, TB 7. The ensuing drive Tampa took the ball from the 20 after a touch back and drove all the way down to Detroit's one yard line. It looked like it was gonna be a 16-14 when Garcia bobbled the snap and Detroit recovered on their own seven yard line. Tampa's defense looked flat and emotionless as Detroit capped off a 93 yard drive with a 32 yard run off a reverse from rookie WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson broke 3 or 4 tackles on the play and Tampa's defense was officially demoralized. Detroit 23, Tampa 7. Tampa would score on their next possession after another nice long drive of 78 yards capped by a 4 yard touchdown reception by Bucs WR Maurice Stovall. Tampa went for a two point conversion and missed. Detroit 23, Tampa 13. Tampa would kick the onside kick, recover, and drive down the field another 29 yards for a field goal. Detroit 23, Tampa 16. Tampa had pulled within a touchdown and would need to recover another onside kick if they were to have a chance. There was a mad dash for the ball and Tampa nearly recovered but no marbles. Detroit ran out the rest of the clock and Tampa was handed their 3rd loss of the season.
It goes to show that in football it's more about each play then the entire collection of plays. Tampa had a number of good drives on which they were able to move the ball and control the clock. If Tampa would have made that game tying field goal in the beginning of the game perhaps it would have gone down different. I felt throughout the game that if Tampa was just able to get a lead, if only a 3 point lead, that they would be able to run out the clock and win the game. They moved the ball too well, and their offense was too sharp to lose the game. Their defense on the other hand didn't play with the same fire that I have seem them play with all year. Barrett Ruud, the NFL leading tackler, only had two tackles. Tarvaris Jackson and Jermaine Phillips didn't seem to be coming up and popping guys like you usually see them do. I have loved to watch Tampa's D play all season, this game I saw nothing special out of them. You gotta expect the defense to turn it up next week as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many consider to be among the top five teams in the AFC.
Earnest Graham stepped up his role, he had 10 rushes for 92 yards and 13 receptions for 99 yards. Jeff Garcia at one point completed 18 straight passes, tying the Buccaneer franchise record. Garcia remains one of two starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have not thrown an interception this season. The other is David Garrard who faces off against Indianapolis tonight.
Tampa hosts Jacksonville this weekend in what is sure to be a defensive battle.
Apparently Mike Golic, co-host of ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning radio show, didn't look at the numbers of the game as he has the Detroit Lions as the fourth best team in the NFC after this loss.
This was a fluke loss for Tampa. I know all that matters is wins but take away two plays and Tampa would have dominated the game.
Tampa outgained Detroit by 144 yards on offense as they put up 422 yards to Detroit's 278. Time of posession also went Tampa's way as Tampa had an 11 minute advantage in time of posession, Tampa had 35 minutes 50 seconds to Detroit 24 minutes and 10 seconds. Tampa ran 30 more plays on offense than Detroit did, Tampa ran 77 plays to Detroit's 47 plays. If you control the clock, run more offensive plays, and gain more yardage than a team then just basic logic tells me that you should win.
Tampa had their first drive stalled and their punt blocked to begin the game. Detroit took advantage and put a field through the uprights. Tampa's second drive showed some promise, they were moving the ball, then Jeff Garcia fumbles and Detroit makes them pay. Detroit scored a touchdown and were off to a quick 10 point lead. Tampa's next drive took time off the clock and ended with a Ike Hilliard touchdown reception. Tampa forced Detroit to punt on their next drive then drove down the field again only to miss the game tying field goal. They then allowed Detroit to drive close enough to put a field goal through before the half. At halftime the score was 13-6. Tampa stopped Detroit's first drive of the 3rd quarter but werent able to do anything with their own first drive of the 3rd, it ended with another punt. The following possession Detroit drove down for another field goal, score Det 16, TB 7. The ensuing drive Tampa took the ball from the 20 after a touch back and drove all the way down to Detroit's one yard line. It looked like it was gonna be a 16-14 when Garcia bobbled the snap and Detroit recovered on their own seven yard line. Tampa's defense looked flat and emotionless as Detroit capped off a 93 yard drive with a 32 yard run off a reverse from rookie WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson broke 3 or 4 tackles on the play and Tampa's defense was officially demoralized. Detroit 23, Tampa 7. Tampa would score on their next possession after another nice long drive of 78 yards capped by a 4 yard touchdown reception by Bucs WR Maurice Stovall. Tampa went for a two point conversion and missed. Detroit 23, Tampa 13. Tampa would kick the onside kick, recover, and drive down the field another 29 yards for a field goal. Detroit 23, Tampa 16. Tampa had pulled within a touchdown and would need to recover another onside kick if they were to have a chance. There was a mad dash for the ball and Tampa nearly recovered but no marbles. Detroit ran out the rest of the clock and Tampa was handed their 3rd loss of the season.
It goes to show that in football it's more about each play then the entire collection of plays. Tampa had a number of good drives on which they were able to move the ball and control the clock. If Tampa would have made that game tying field goal in the beginning of the game perhaps it would have gone down different. I felt throughout the game that if Tampa was just able to get a lead, if only a 3 point lead, that they would be able to run out the clock and win the game. They moved the ball too well, and their offense was too sharp to lose the game. Their defense on the other hand didn't play with the same fire that I have seem them play with all year. Barrett Ruud, the NFL leading tackler, only had two tackles. Tarvaris Jackson and Jermaine Phillips didn't seem to be coming up and popping guys like you usually see them do. I have loved to watch Tampa's D play all season, this game I saw nothing special out of them. You gotta expect the defense to turn it up next week as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many consider to be among the top five teams in the AFC.
Earnest Graham stepped up his role, he had 10 rushes for 92 yards and 13 receptions for 99 yards. Jeff Garcia at one point completed 18 straight passes, tying the Buccaneer franchise record. Garcia remains one of two starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have not thrown an interception this season. The other is David Garrard who faces off against Indianapolis tonight.
Tampa hosts Jacksonville this weekend in what is sure to be a defensive battle.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Meet me at the line of scrimmage
InjuriesInjuries are part of the game of football, you just hate to see them. Cadillac Williams sustained a tear to his patellar tendon this Sunday in the game against the Carolina Panthers. Doctors have said it is season ending and potentially career threatening.
"That injury at the running back position is a tough one to come back 100 percent from," said Dr. Johnny Benjamin, chairman of orthopedics at Indian River Medical Center in Vero Beach. "Leg strength and drive are very important ... it's hard to generate after this type of injury."
The tendon usually tears off the bone of the kneecap, and to repair it, strong sutures are tied to the tendon and then passed through holes drilled in the kneecap. These strong sutures are tied in place to pull the torn edge of the tendon back to its proper attachment on the kneecap.
I hate to see it happen to Cadillac. Best of luck Caddy, and may you return, stronger than ever.
REDEMPTION
While in the spirit of bad news I guess it would be proper to announce that Bucs left tackle Luke Petitgout is also out for the season with what is believed to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. Petitgout's injury, while serious, is not career threatening.
Where do we go from here?
Tampa Bay faces their toughest opponent yet this coming Sunday in the Indianapolis Colts. Micheal Pittman is going to be the teams feature back in place of Williams. Earnest Graham also will see more time with the ball. I was just talking about the depth of Tampa's backfield last week too. Tampa has promoted rookie running back Kenneth Darby from the practice squad to the team's 53 man roster.
I have a bright idea. Why don't we have Ronde Barber go ask his identical twin brother Tiki Barber for a little favor? How about one more go at it Tiki? Or does CBS have you locked down in your pretty little football analyst contract?
Tampa has some depth at the tackle position and will be able to replace LT Luke Petitgout. His successor is Donald Penn, a 6'5" 305 pound beast. Here's what he had to say about his shot:
"I always watch that Tiki Barber commercial when he's driving that Escalade and he's talking about his opportunity, Every time I see that commercial, I'm like, Man, I'm just waiting on mine and I've got to do it because you only get one." This guy feels like he has something to prove and I suspect he will fill in well for Petitgout. Tampa has promoted tackle Dennis Roland from the practice squad to the 53 man roster. Penn has even more to prove now.
This Sunday will be rough but I remain optimistic. I have echoes in my head of the 2003 Bucs Colts matchup in which the Colts scored 21 points with less that 4 minutes left in the game to go on and win the game in overtime, the biggest comeback in NFL history in the 4 minute timeframe. REDEMPTION
Peyton Manning is as solid as they come for a team leader. The only way, and I emphasize the word only, to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts is to keep pressure on Manning throughout the game. Good passing beats good coverage. Manning is so accurate and Colts wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are such good route runners that even the best coverage will not shut down the Colts pass attack.
Tampa Bay D vs. Indy Offensive line
If Tampa wins this battle they win the game. Tampa's D line has the opportunity to control the game Sunday. Peyton Manning has only been sacked three times this whole year. In 2006 Peyton Manning was 34th in the league in number of times sacked with 14. There are only 32 teams in the league. Other teams' backups were sacked more than Peyton last year! In 2005 Manning was 37th, in 2004 he was 35th, in 2003 he was 31st. Peyton Manning has been sacked less times over the past four years, 62 times sacked, than Lions QB Jon Kitna was last year alone, 63 times sacked. The Colts offensive line is solid, year in and year out. The upside of these statistics is that Peyton is not used to being sacked. He's not even used to being pressured. If Tampa can pressure him, they throw him out of his rhythm, next thing you know Mannings Mind is going nuts. This is when you see him and his huge shiny forehead on the sideline crying like a baby. As good as Manning is, he has it easier than any QB in the league. Manning has never had a concussion, he's hardly even been hit, yet he cries like a battered wife when something goes wrong. Tampa has recorded eight sacks this season. It is my prediction that if Tampa gets 5 this Sunday vs. the Colts they win the game.
Tampa Bay D vs. Indy pass attack
WR Marvin Harrison very possibly will be out with an injury for this Sunday's matchup. Harrison only makes up 22% of Indy's NFL 6th ranked pass attack but has been historically good vs. the Bucs averaging a touchdown and more than 100 yards each time he plays them. WR Reggie Wayne, now more dangerous than Harrison was when the Bucs last faced the Colts, is making up 29% of the pass attack. However, the guy to watch out for is the underrated Colts TE Dallas Clark. This guy is making up 24% of the Colts pass attack and has more touchdowns than both Harrison and Wayne. TE's are also very difficult to cover since TE's are usually covered by linebackers. Tampa has some great coverage linebackers however in Cato June and Tampa Bay legend and future HOF'er Derrick Brooks. If you look deeper into these percentages there is perhaps a more important observation. Peyton Manning spreads the ball around, 22% to Harrison, 29% to Wayne, 24% to Clark, and the other 25% distributed among Indy's other Wide receiver. Last week we saw a Carolina team that had one man, Carolina WR Steve Smith, as nearly half of their pass attack. Peyton Manning leads a versatile pass attack which calls for good all around defense. Tampa has the talent to shut this pass attack down. Ronde Barber will lead the coverage side of the D while the "lumberjack" Jermaine Phillips will lay wood to receivers, installing fear, and throwing them off their A games.
Tampa Bay D vs. Indy rush attack
Indy running back Joseph Addai will possibly be on the bench this week with a shoulder injury. Addai is nearly Indy's entire ground attack. 73% of the yards Indy have gained on the ground this season have come on the back of Addai. This leaves the Colts with RB's Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton, and Clifton Dawson. These three had zero NFL carries coming into the 2007 season, combined. What I see is a very inexperienced running back core against a Tampa D that is now 5th in the NFL in total defense. My instincts tell me these backs won't do well but you have to leave the possibilities open. If Addai does play that will pit Indy's NFL 7th ranked rush offense versus Tampa Bay's 20th ranked rush defense. In fairness to being 20th ranked the majority of rush yards against Tampa have come late in games when Tampa is winning.
Jeff Garcia and gang vs. Indy pass D
The Indianapolis Colts are 7th in the NFL this year in pass defense. in 2006 Indy was 2nd in the NFL in pass defense. Jeff Garcia will have to step it up this week if his NFL 24th ranked pass offense hopes to have success against this D. Tampa's offensive line will have to step it up especially. Tampa left tackle Luke Petitgout is out for the season and 2nd year player Donald Penn will get his first start. Penn will have to travel to hostile territory and guard QB Jeff Garcia's blind side against one of the best pass rushers in the game, Indy DE Dwight Freeney. Penn's first start will be a test for him and if he passes you can expect to see more of him as the season plays out. Indy is tied for 18th with eight sacks this year and Jeff Garcia has only been sacked 4 times. Garcia hasn't turned the ball over a single time this season, no fumbles, no interceptions, and will need to keep that up if he hopes for victory Sunday.
Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham vs. Indy rush D
This is the second most important battle Tampa will need to win if they expect victory Sunday. With Carnell out for the season these two know they need to step it up. Tampa's rush attack is ranked 8th in the league. Cadillac Williams made up 38% of the rush attack with 208 of the 548 rushing yards Tampa has this year. Pittman makes up 31% of the rush attack, and Graham 25%. These guys have much larger roles now but face an Indy D that was last in the NFL last year in rush D. Indy's rush D is 22nd this year. Indy safety Bob Sanders is, as a safety, important to Indy's pass defense, but is a huge component of Indy's rush D as well. Bob Sanders just might be out this week with a rib injury. The absence of Bob Sanders reverts Indy's rush D back to that 32nd ranked form. The loss of Bob Sanders equates to the loss of a leader, an anchor on your D, a guy whos willing to come up from the safety position to pop a running back uxexpectedly.
Recipe for Success:
This week we eat horse?
If Tampa sacks Peyton Manning five times this week they win. Those five sacks must equal pressure throughout the game however. Five sacks against Indy is a little far fetched so I'll leave it at pressure on Manning throughout the game. That would be a victory for the D line. A Tampa D line controlling their line of scrimmage coupled with a Tampa O line controlling their line of scrimmage, opening up holes for Pittman and Graham to run through, cooks up victory for the Bucs this week.
There's a lot on the line in this one. With a loss Tampa could fall out of first place, and Manning and his shiny forehead go into the bye week 5-0. A win and I get to see clips of Manning drooling and babbling like a two-year old on the sideline. It also spells redemption from the 2003 Indy comeback and resiliency after two huge injuries last week. A win this week puts Tampa Bay among super bowl contenders! I had to say it.
Final Score:
Tampa Bay 34 Indy 31
Head to Head
Tampa has won two of the last three against the Colts but hasn't beat them since 1997.
The Bucs and Colts have only played 5 times, Tampa leads the matchup 3-2.
QB Peyton Manning, in one career game vs. Tampa, is 34 of 47 passing with 386 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
WR Marvin Harrison, in 2 career games vs. Tampa, has 14 receptions for 233 yards and two touchdowns.
WR Reggie Wayne, in one career game vs. Tampa, has 4 receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns.
None of the running backs on the Colts roster have faced Tampa.
QB Jeff Garcia, in two career games vs. the Colts, has a passer rating of 113.1.
RB Michael Pittman, in one career game against the Colts, has 16 carries for 106 yards.
None of the WR's on Tampa have faced off against the Colts.
Tampa has won two of the last three against the Colts but hasn't beat them since 1997.
The Bucs and Colts have only played 5 times, Tampa leads the matchup 3-2.
QB Peyton Manning, in one career game vs. Tampa, is 34 of 47 passing with 386 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
WR Marvin Harrison, in 2 career games vs. Tampa, has 14 receptions for 233 yards and two touchdowns.
WR Reggie Wayne, in one career game vs. Tampa, has 4 receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns.
None of the running backs on the Colts roster have faced Tampa.
QB Jeff Garcia, in two career games vs. the Colts, has a passer rating of 113.1.
RB Michael Pittman, in one career game against the Colts, has 16 carries for 106 yards.
None of the WR's on Tampa have faced off against the Colts.
Tribute to Carnell "Cadillac" Williams
Cadilliac Williams out for the season, and possibly forever, with a potentially career threatening tear to his patellar tendon.
Scroll down for a special tribute song to our beloved "Caddy" , Total Eclipse of the Heart as sung in the style of Dan Finnerty, the wedding singer in Old School.
TURN AROUND
Every now and then I get a little bit lonely and you're never coming round.
Every now and then I get a little bit tired of listening to the sound of my tears.
TURN AROUND
Every now and then I get a little bit nervous that the best of all the years have gone by.
TURN AROUND
and then I see the fu**ing look in your eyes.
TURN AROUND, BRIGHT EYES
Every now and then I fall apart.
and if you only hold me tight, we'll be holding on forever.
And we'll only be making it right,
'cause we'll never be wrong Together
we can take it to the end of the line.
Your love is like a shadow on me all of the time.
I don't know what to do
I'm always in the dark.
We're living in a powder keg and giving off sparks.
I really need you tonight..
but now there's only love in the dark.
Scroll down for a special tribute song to our beloved "Caddy" , Total Eclipse of the Heart as sung in the style of Dan Finnerty, the wedding singer in Old School.
TURN AROUND
Every now and then I get a little bit lonely and you're never coming round.
Every now and then I get a little bit tired of listening to the sound of my tears.
TURN AROUND
Every now and then I get a little bit nervous that the best of all the years have gone by.
TURN AROUND
and then I see the fu**ing look in your eyes.
TURN AROUND, BRIGHT EYES
Every now and then I fall apart.
and if you only hold me tight, we'll be holding on forever.
And we'll only be making it right,
'cause we'll never be wrong Together
we can take it to the end of the line.
Your love is like a shadow on me all of the time.
I don't know what to do
I'm always in the dark.
We're living in a powder keg and giving off sparks.
I really need you tonight..
Once upon a time I was falling in love
but now I'm only falling apart.
There's nothing I can do,
a total eclipse of the heart.
Once upon a time there was light in my life
but now there's only love in the dark.
Nothing I can say,
Friday, September 28, 2007
Chinese Restaurant
Prediction Beast
Three picks and two Earnest Graham touchdowns later Tampa Bay is 2-1. Ill have to point out that I did predict late game desperation from St. Louis that would lead to multiple picks. I also predicted big games from Graham and Micheal Pittman, combined they had 131 rush yards to add to Cadillac's 46. Ill give credit where it is due. St. Louis played Tampa tough. At one point it was 10-3, in the fourth. A tired Ram defense couldn't stop Tampa's rush attack as they pounded the ball on the ground for the last 10 minutes of the game. Oh I predicted that too. It was no doubt a good game, close up until the end, and kept me on the edge of my seat.
Graham the Man
Tampa Bay's rush game was certainly praiseworthy last Sunday. Cadillac fumbled twice and
managed 42 rush yards through the first three quarters, nothing spectacular. Enter Earnest Graham, 4th quarter. He put up 75 yards on the ground on 8 attempts and scored twice. Pittman added another 50 or so yards in the fourth. The fact that Tampa has these guys sitting on the bench throughout the game to come in fresh in the late quarters has got to be scary to defenses around the league. Earnest Graham is in his fourth season as an NFL player and put up 75 yards in one quarter on Sunday, eight yards shy of his career high for a season! This guy looked great in the preseason as he led the Bucs in rush yards. I hope Tampa will continue to take advantage of Graham and Pittman as a late game tandem because they definitely showed potential Sunday against the Rams.
Honorable Mentions
Other notable mentions from the St. Louis game are Jeff Garcia and Barret Ruud. Garcia continued his effectiveness against the Rams Sunday. Garcia hasn't thrown an interception in three games so far this season. Although he only has two touchdown passes, he is fifth in the league with a passer rating of 105.6. Garcia should be commended for his elusiveness as well. He's only been sacked four times this year and has eluded the sack more times than that. Barrett Ruud continued to stand out on defense last week. He led the team in tackles with nine and had the first interception of his career. Ruud leads the NFL in tackles and I heard a certain NFL analyst use his name and the words "defensive player of the year nominee" in the same sentence. I believe it is far too early to predict something like that. It's not like analysts are known for making ridiculous predictions, always trying to top the ridiculous prediction which preceded their own. *cough* Salisbury likes to expose himself to random people *cough*
Implications
I guess I should talk about this weeks match up now. Tampa Bay at Carolina, it goes down Sunday at 4:05 p.m. This will be one of Tampa Bay's most important games of the season. There are many implications. The first being the winner takes sole possession of first place. The second being that Tampa has already beat the Saints, who were chosen by certain analysts as a Super Bowl team, and are now 0-3. If they beat the Panthers this week they will have beat both teams that are major threats to their chances of a divisional title. Every week there is something to prove. This week Tampa proves that they are a viable threat to win the NFC South. I don't consider the Atlanta Falcons in this equation, not as long as they have the golden boy, Joey Harrington, leading their team. A win puts them in sole possession of first place and gives them a 2-0 divisonal record. The divisonal record is key later on in the season in case of tie breakers and what not. Also a win puts Tampa more than half way to Salisbury's ever so insightful five wins on the season prediction. A Sunday win will put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a commanding position in the NFC South.
Statistically Speaking
Tampa Rush D VS. Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams
The Bucs D moved up to 11th in the NFL this week. Tampa Bay's 2007 21st ranked 2006 17th ranked rush D will take on Carolina's 2007 6th ranked ground attack, which was ranked 24th last year. Carolina still has some proving to do on the ground. The Carolina tandem of Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams put up 169 yards on the ground last week against a 25th ranked ATL Falcon D. In week 1 they put up 172 yards against the Rams, the 28th ranked rush D. However in week two they faced Houston's 6th ranked rush D they only managed 53 yards. Tthe Panthers rush attack is ranked 6th, but their big numbers came against the 25th and 28th ranked rush defenses. When faced with Houston's 6th ranked rush D the numbers went down by two thirds. Tampa Bay's D certainly has the ability to shut down their rush game and it is important, however I am more worried about Carolina's pass attack.
Tampa Pass D VS. ? and Steve Smith
It is unknown at this point who will start for Carolina. Big cat, or should I say big puss, Jake Delhomme hasn't practiced for Carolina this week so backup David Carr will likely start. The quarterback doesn't matter though as it's Steve Smith who is the Buccaneer Killer. Over the past two seasons Smith has 25 receptions and 474 receiving yards against the Bucs. It is key for Tampa's 9th ranked pass D to shut down Steve Smith if they have hopes of shutting down Carolina's 21st ranked pass attack. Even further, Steve Smith makes up 41% of Carolina's pass attack. Of 682 reception yards for Panthers receivers this year, Steve Smith has 281 of them.
The CaddilaPittmaGraham Tandem VS. Carolina rush D
Tampa's 13th ranked rush offense, the CaddilaPittmaGraham Tandem takes on Carolina's 13th ranked rush defense. Carolina held Steven Jackson and the Rams to 58 yards in week one. In week two they gave up 130 yards to Ahman Green and Ron Dayne of the Texans. In week three they only gave up 82 yards to the Falcons who have been a top five rushing attack since Michael Vick came on board, but he's gone now. Steven Jackson was 5th in rushing last year and is a proven back. Carolina's D altogether is no joke and Tampa will need their trio to put up big numbers against them in week 4.
Jeff Garcia VS. Carolina pass D
Jeff Garcia and Tampa's 23rd ranked pass attack will need some numbers against Carolina's 21st ranked pass D. Carolina has allowed big numbers through the air this year and Tampa Bay will need to take advantage. Garcia should stay conservative but will need at least one passing score this week. If Carolina's pass D is their weak point then Tampa must expose it. Im expecting and predicting a pass touchdown from Garcia this week.
Recipe for success
Jeff Garcia should be efficient again through the air but must put a few in the end zone. The Tampa Bay Trio should supplement Garcia's conservative pass attack by pounding away at Carolina's defense, tiring them out and opening the door to the end zone for Garcia. The biggest key on defense is stopping Steve Smith. Follow the recipe and like a Chinese restaurant we will be cooking up dead cat this Sunday.
Final Score Tampa Bay 27 Carolina 16
Three picks and two Earnest Graham touchdowns later Tampa Bay is 2-1. Ill have to point out that I did predict late game desperation from St. Louis that would lead to multiple picks. I also predicted big games from Graham and Micheal Pittman, combined they had 131 rush yards to add to Cadillac's 46. Ill give credit where it is due. St. Louis played Tampa tough. At one point it was 10-3, in the fourth. A tired Ram defense couldn't stop Tampa's rush attack as they pounded the ball on the ground for the last 10 minutes of the game. Oh I predicted that too. It was no doubt a good game, close up until the end, and kept me on the edge of my seat.
Graham the Man
Tampa Bay's rush game was certainly praiseworthy last Sunday. Cadillac fumbled twice and
managed 42 rush yards through the first three quarters, nothing spectacular. Enter Earnest Graham, 4th quarter. He put up 75 yards on the ground on 8 attempts and scored twice. Pittman added another 50 or so yards in the fourth. The fact that Tampa has these guys sitting on the bench throughout the game to come in fresh in the late quarters has got to be scary to defenses around the league. Earnest Graham is in his fourth season as an NFL player and put up 75 yards in one quarter on Sunday, eight yards shy of his career high for a season! This guy looked great in the preseason as he led the Bucs in rush yards. I hope Tampa will continue to take advantage of Graham and Pittman as a late game tandem because they definitely showed potential Sunday against the Rams.Honorable Mentions
Other notable mentions from the St. Louis game are Jeff Garcia and Barret Ruud. Garcia continued his effectiveness against the Rams Sunday. Garcia hasn't thrown an interception in three games so far this season. Although he only has two touchdown passes, he is fifth in the league with a passer rating of 105.6. Garcia should be commended for his elusiveness as well. He's only been sacked four times this year and has eluded the sack more times than that. Barrett Ruud continued to stand out on defense last week. He led the team in tackles with nine and had the first interception of his career. Ruud leads the NFL in tackles and I heard a certain NFL analyst use his name and the words "defensive player of the year nominee" in the same sentence. I believe it is far too early to predict something like that. It's not like analysts are known for making ridiculous predictions, always trying to top the ridiculous prediction which preceded their own. *cough* Salisbury likes to expose himself to random people *cough*
Implications
I guess I should talk about this weeks match up now. Tampa Bay at Carolina, it goes down Sunday at 4:05 p.m. This will be one of Tampa Bay's most important games of the season. There are many implications. The first being the winner takes sole possession of first place. The second being that Tampa has already beat the Saints, who were chosen by certain analysts as a Super Bowl team, and are now 0-3. If they beat the Panthers this week they will have beat both teams that are major threats to their chances of a divisional title. Every week there is something to prove. This week Tampa proves that they are a viable threat to win the NFC South. I don't consider the Atlanta Falcons in this equation, not as long as they have the golden boy, Joey Harrington, leading their team. A win puts them in sole possession of first place and gives them a 2-0 divisonal record. The divisonal record is key later on in the season in case of tie breakers and what not. Also a win puts Tampa more than half way to Salisbury's ever so insightful five wins on the season prediction. A Sunday win will put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a commanding position in the NFC South.
Statistically Speaking
Tampa Rush D VS. Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams
The Bucs D moved up to 11th in the NFL this week. Tampa Bay's 2007 21st ranked 2006 17th ranked rush D will take on Carolina's 2007 6th ranked ground attack, which was ranked 24th last year. Carolina still has some proving to do on the ground. The Carolina tandem of Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams put up 169 yards on the ground last week against a 25th ranked ATL Falcon D. In week 1 they put up 172 yards against the Rams, the 28th ranked rush D. However in week two they faced Houston's 6th ranked rush D they only managed 53 yards. Tthe Panthers rush attack is ranked 6th, but their big numbers came against the 25th and 28th ranked rush defenses. When faced with Houston's 6th ranked rush D the numbers went down by two thirds. Tampa Bay's D certainly has the ability to shut down their rush game and it is important, however I am more worried about Carolina's pass attack.
Tampa Pass D VS. ? and Steve Smith
It is unknown at this point who will start for Carolina. Big cat, or should I say big puss, Jake Delhomme hasn't practiced for Carolina this week so backup David Carr will likely start. The quarterback doesn't matter though as it's Steve Smith who is the Buccaneer Killer. Over the past two seasons Smith has 25 receptions and 474 receiving yards against the Bucs. It is key for Tampa's 9th ranked pass D to shut down Steve Smith if they have hopes of shutting down Carolina's 21st ranked pass attack. Even further, Steve Smith makes up 41% of Carolina's pass attack. Of 682 reception yards for Panthers receivers this year, Steve Smith has 281 of them.
The CaddilaPittmaGraham Tandem VS. Carolina rush D
Tampa's 13th ranked rush offense, the CaddilaPittmaGraham Tandem takes on Carolina's 13th ranked rush defense. Carolina held Steven Jackson and the Rams to 58 yards in week one. In week two they gave up 130 yards to Ahman Green and Ron Dayne of the Texans. In week three they only gave up 82 yards to the Falcons who have been a top five rushing attack since Michael Vick came on board, but he's gone now. Steven Jackson was 5th in rushing last year and is a proven back. Carolina's D altogether is no joke and Tampa will need their trio to put up big numbers against them in week 4.
Jeff Garcia VS. Carolina pass D
Jeff Garcia and Tampa's 23rd ranked pass attack will need some numbers against Carolina's 21st ranked pass D. Carolina has allowed big numbers through the air this year and Tampa Bay will need to take advantage. Garcia should stay conservative but will need at least one passing score this week. If Carolina's pass D is their weak point then Tampa must expose it. Im expecting and predicting a pass touchdown from Garcia this week.
Recipe for success
Jeff Garcia should be efficient again through the air but must put a few in the end zone. The Tampa Bay Trio should supplement Garcia's conservative pass attack by pounding away at Carolina's defense, tiring them out and opening the door to the end zone for Garcia. The biggest key on defense is stopping Steve Smith. Follow the recipe and like a Chinese restaurant we will be cooking up dead cat this Sunday.
Final Score Tampa Bay 27 Carolina 16
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
1-1 Baby!
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in first place, their tied I know, and it's a beautiful thing. After knocking off the NFC South Champions in week 2 analysts will take us serious. Fans will start paying attention. Band-wagoners will storm down their respective dirt roads sporting Buccaneer T's and flags, and drink their coffee from Buccaneer mugs. 
Jeff Garcia went 10 for 16 passing with 243 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints Sunday. He hit Galloway four times for 135 yards and with both TD passes. Just as predicted Saints CB Jason David struggled as he was burned by Galloway early for a TD. Caddy earned his 61 yards as he had 24 attempts and only averaged 2.5 yards a carry. He ran hard, with bruised ribs, and poked the ball into the end zone twice from the one yard line. The defense gave the home crowd a show on Sunday. They took a shut out into half time, the first time for the Bucs in three years. MLB Barrett Ruud had 10 tackles and two forced fumbles and was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. The fact that the TB D was able to shut out the NFL's No. 1 offense from a year ago for a half says something about this D. If they can keep up Sunday's pace for the entire year they will be exciting to watch.
Jeff Garcia went 10 for 16 passing with 243 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints Sunday. He hit Galloway four times for 135 yards and with both TD passes. Just as predicted Saints CB Jason David struggled as he was burned by Galloway early for a TD. Caddy earned his 61 yards as he had 24 attempts and only averaged 2.5 yards a carry. He ran hard, with bruised ribs, and poked the ball into the end zone twice from the one yard line. The defense gave the home crowd a show on Sunday. They took a shut out into half time, the first time for the Bucs in three years. MLB Barrett Ruud had 10 tackles and two forced fumbles and was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. The fact that the TB D was able to shut out the NFL's No. 1 offense from a year ago for a half says something about this D. If they can keep up Sunday's pace for the entire year they will be exciting to watch.
Trends: Tampa hosts the St. Louis Rams this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Statistically Tampa Bay and St Louis match up well. Tampa Bay and St Louis are 23rd and 18th respectively in total offense, 15th and 9th respectively in the pass game, and 25th and 28th respectively in the rushing game. Two weeks of statistics don't mean two much but trends can begin to show. 2006 statistics show St. Louis as 4th in the NFL in passing while they where 17th in rushing, so St. Louis is beginning to show a trend this year, as they did last year, as a primarily pass oriented team. Tampa Bay's D is 20th in pass defense this year, and last year was 19th. However their secondary is very similar to 2005's secondary in which they were 6th against the pass. St. Louis is 4th against the pass so far this year and 25th against the rush. Last year they where 8th against the pass and 31st against the rush.
Matchups: Tampa Bay pits their 2007 25th ranked, 2006 28th ranked rush offense against the Rams' 2007 25th ranked , 2006 31st ranked rush defense. Tampa's 2007 15th ranked, 2006 26th ranked pass offense will face a proven St Louis pass defense. St. Louis' pass defense is ranked 4th this year and was 8th all of last year. St Louis' 2007 9th ranked, 2006 4th ranked pass offense will face off against Tampa Bay's 2007 20th ranked, 2006 19th ranked, 2005 6th ranked (their roster reflects the 2005 secondary) pass defense. St Louis' 2007 28th ranked, 2006 17th ranked rush offense will take on Tampa Bay's 2007 20th ranked, 2006 17th ranked rush defense.
Digestion: It seems the No. 1 priority for Tampa should be stopping the pass. St Louis is known to be a passing team and the statistics show it. If Tampa's D-Line can put substantial pressure on Marc Bulger and eliminate the need of blitzing from the secondary, then Tampa's secondary should be able to handle star wide receiver Tory Holt. Tampa put good pressure on Brees last week and should be able to pressure Bulger this week. No. 2 priority should be getting the running game going. Cadillac Williams will have to have a better yards per carry this week than last week. Look for Tampa to switch up the pace, throwing bigger bodied backs Micheal Pittman and Earnest Graham into the mix against St. Louis' soft rush defense. Garcia again will be expected to just make the throws and no mistakes as he did last week. All he has to do is be efficient. I expect a pounding rush game and a consistent pass game against the Rams Sunday.
A shutdown secondary, pressure on Bulger from the D-line, and a successful Buccaneer rush game that includes Cadillac, Pittman, and Graham make up the recipe for success for the Buccaneers this Sunday against the Rams.
If Tampa can get an early lead, pound the ball, and run the clock they may be able to put St. Louis into desperation mode. We may see alot of picks in this one, especially if Tampa is keeping the pressure on Bulger.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 27 St. Louis 10
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Staying Positive
Maybe I got a little ahead of myself last week. For a football fan the NFL opening weekend is very exciting and I might have gotten a little emotional. I still don't like Sean Salisbury but that's besides the point.
The Seattle Seahawks are last years AFC West Champions so they are a good team. Tampa Bay missed opportunities. Two early red zone appearances stalled out and resulted in field goals. A 56 yard punt return, the result of a blown assignment. A 34 yard pass to a back up running back who didn't have a single touchdown catch last year, blown coverage. Three forced fumbles. I'm making excuses. Derrick Brooks put it best, "There's no silver lining in losing" So on to next week...
Last week Tampa had the AFC West Champions and this week they get the NFC South Champion New Orleans Aints. I mean Saints. I remember the glory days when the Saints fans were so embarassed to be at their teams games that they would wear paper bags on their heads. Haha loser Saints fans. At least Tampa Bay never got called any names, like the Yucs or anything, or wore paper bags on their heads to games. Hey we got the paper bag thing from you though.
So Tampa will take on last season's number one pass offense and will likely be without starting cornerback Brian Kelly. New Orleans didn't look that great last week against New England, but then again that's the Patriots. The positive is this will be an early test to see if the Tampa Bay D is for real. If they do win then I get to talk mad smack to every New Orleans fan I see and bash them in their blogs, if I so happen to read any.
The Buccaneer offense has got to get going this week. It's their home opener and they're playing against a N.O. D that gave up 41 points last week to the Patriots, but then again, that's the Patriots. New Orleans defense was 30th in total defense last year but 3rd against the pass. Jeff Garcia will need Carnell Williams healthy for this one. New Orleans was 23rd against the rush last year and gave up 165 yds last week. Carnell Williams, is ? with a rib injury so who knows if he will contribute. When I say ? I don't mean questionable I mean who knows Unless your close with the trainers or head coaches, Under new NFL procedure teams can't "officially" declare a player probable, questionable, doubtful, etc. until the Friday before the game. The Buccaneers need to get Joey Galloway running against Saints CB Jason David who gave up three touchdowns and over 100 yards receving last week. Cadillac needs to have his engine running as well as the Bucs likely will have to put points up to win this matchup.
The defense left more to be desired last week as they allowed 343 total yards, 204 through the air and another 139 yards on the ground. Home opener. Pride. Step it up D. They no doubt underperformed and face a stauncher offensive opponent this week.
I can't call a Buccaneer win a long shot this week although the thought did cross my mind. A healthy Cadillac Williams pounding the ball, a Jeff Garcia that will manage the pass game and not not commit turnovers, and a defense that steps it up from last week along with a turnover or two and a paid off referee should be a recipe for success this week for Tampa. Tampa Bay is getting 3 1/2 pts. this week if your a betting man but I, of course, have them winning outright. Final Score: Tampa Bay 27 New Orleans 24
The Seattle Seahawks are last years AFC West Champions so they are a good team. Tampa Bay missed opportunities. Two early red zone appearances stalled out and resulted in field goals. A 56 yard punt return, the result of a blown assignment. A 34 yard pass to a back up running back who didn't have a single touchdown catch last year, blown coverage. Three forced fumbles. I'm making excuses. Derrick Brooks put it best, "There's no silver lining in losing" So on to next week...
Last week Tampa had the AFC West Champions and this week they get the NFC South Champion New Orleans Aints. I mean Saints. I remember the glory days when the Saints fans were so embarassed to be at their teams games that they would wear paper bags on their heads. Haha loser Saints fans. At least Tampa Bay never got called any names, like the Yucs or anything, or wore paper bags on their heads to games. Hey we got the paper bag thing from you though.So Tampa will take on last season's number one pass offense and will likely be without starting cornerback Brian Kelly. New Orleans didn't look that great last week against New England, but then again that's the Patriots. The positive is this will be an early test to see if the Tampa Bay D is for real. If they do win then I get to talk mad smack to every New Orleans fan I see and bash them in their blogs, if I so happen to read any.
The Buccaneer offense has got to get going this week. It's their home opener and they're playing against a N.O. D that gave up 41 points last week to the Patriots, but then again, that's the Patriots. New Orleans defense was 30th in total defense last year but 3rd against the pass. Jeff Garcia will need Carnell Williams healthy for this one. New Orleans was 23rd against the rush last year and gave up 165 yds last week. Carnell Williams, is ? with a rib injury so who knows if he will contribute. When I say ? I don't mean questionable I mean who knows Unless your close with the trainers or head coaches, Under new NFL procedure teams can't "officially" declare a player probable, questionable, doubtful, etc. until the Friday before the game. The Buccaneers need to get Joey Galloway running against Saints CB Jason David who gave up three touchdowns and over 100 yards receving last week. Cadillac needs to have his engine running as well as the Bucs likely will have to put points up to win this matchup.
The defense left more to be desired last week as they allowed 343 total yards, 204 through the air and another 139 yards on the ground. Home opener. Pride. Step it up D. They no doubt underperformed and face a stauncher offensive opponent this week.
I can't call a Buccaneer win a long shot this week although the thought did cross my mind. A healthy Cadillac Williams pounding the ball, a Jeff Garcia that will manage the pass game and not not commit turnovers, and a defense that steps it up from last week along with a turnover or two and a paid off referee should be a recipe for success this week for Tampa. Tampa Bay is getting 3 1/2 pts. this week if your a betting man but I, of course, have them winning outright. Final Score: Tampa Bay 27 New Orleans 24
LET'S GO TAMPA BAY!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Kick off
5 wins? Come on Salisbury, idiot. I apologize that I don't like to listen to a washed up quarterback as ESPN's lead football analyst. It's too early to say my Bucs will only win 5 games this season (On NFL Live I have Sean Salisbury quoted as saying Tampa Bay will go 5-11 this season, a one win improvement from last season's 4-12), unless you've got a reason. I say they win more than 5 games this year. Here's why.
Tampa Bay D. Their stacked. Let's start at the line. DE Simeon Rice, gone. That's ok he's playing in Denver, AFC. How does a team replace the man who was second among active players in sacks. I guess by signing the man who is 4th among active players in sacks, DE Kevin Carter. Next DT Chris Hovan, solid in the middle. At the other DT is a possible weak point but with a 6'5" 286lb. Greg Peterson lets just call it an unproven point. Finally add Tampa's No. 4 overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft, Gaines Adams, into the mix and you gotta be optimistic about this D-line. I guess I'll go secondary next. At the cornerback position you have twin pro bowlers and 2002 Super Bowl winners Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. At Free Safety Will Allen and at Strong Safety Jermaine Phillips. I thought it would be good to note that this is the exact same secondary the Bucs had in 2005 when they were No. 1 in the NFL in total defense. Finally, at the heart of your defense, are your linebackers. This is surprisingly Tampa's strongest defensive point. The offseason signing of Colts pro bowl linebacker Cato June and the recent signing of Eagle's pro bowl linebacker Jeremiah Trotter will only make Tampa Bay legend and future hall of fame pro bowl linebacker Derrick Brooks that much better.
TB's D is a force to be reckoned with Sean. A Defense like that only equals one additional win? I mean come on, it's not like D wins championships. Dingbat. I knew there was a reason I didn't like you. It's because your a bandwagon analyst. A pretty face with diarrhhea of the mouth. That's right you BS with the best of them. Or maybe I don't like you because of this.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off their season this Sunday at 4:30p.m. in Seattle. Come on Tampa don't make me eat my words.
Tampa Bay D. Their stacked. Let's start at the line. DE Simeon Rice, gone. That's ok he's playing in Denver, AFC. How does a team replace the man who was second among active players in sacks. I guess by signing the man who is 4th among active players in sacks, DE Kevin Carter. Next DT Chris Hovan, solid in the middle. At the other DT is a possible weak point but with a 6'5" 286lb. Greg Peterson lets just call it an unproven point. Finally add Tampa's No. 4 overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft, Gaines Adams, into the mix and you gotta be optimistic about this D-line. I guess I'll go secondary next. At the cornerback position you have twin pro bowlers and 2002 Super Bowl winners Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. At Free Safety Will Allen and at Strong Safety Jermaine Phillips. I thought it would be good to note that this is the exact same secondary the Bucs had in 2005 when they were No. 1 in the NFL in total defense. Finally, at the heart of your defense, are your linebackers. This is surprisingly Tampa's strongest defensive point. The offseason signing of Colts pro bowl linebacker Cato June and the recent signing of Eagle's pro bowl linebacker Jeremiah Trotter will only make Tampa Bay legend and future hall of fame pro bowl linebacker Derrick Brooks that much better.
TB's D is a force to be reckoned with Sean. A Defense like that only equals one additional win? I mean come on, it's not like D wins championships. Dingbat. I knew there was a reason I didn't like you. It's because your a bandwagon analyst. A pretty face with diarrhhea of the mouth. That's right you BS with the best of them. Or maybe I don't like you because of this.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off their season this Sunday at 4:30p.m. in Seattle. Come on Tampa don't make me eat my words.
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