I think last week I was grossly mistaken at how good of a football team the Texans really are. I must apologize to Houston, my birth town. The Bucs were actually beat last week, for the first time since the Colts handed them their asses earlier in the year. The Texans controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage, for the majority of the game, and had a better game plan, bottom line. I dont think I even saw a game plan from Gruden in this game. The Bucs just looked like they didn't know what they wanted to do on offense. They wouldn't commit to the run, or the pass, and seemed to do both at inopportune times. How do you turn a second and one into a 4th down punt when you have a guy like Earnest Graham running the ball who most of the times falls forward for at least a yard. The Texans played the run well, but the Bucs never really commited to it. Instead on third and one you call for your backup quarterback to throw deep to Joey Galloway. McCown played well, but made just enough bad throws, two particularly big overthrows, to lose it. 2nd and one = run the ball!! 3rd and one = run the ball!! This has been what Tampa has been about all year, smart football, get first downs, trudge down the field, eat up clock, put points on the board.. They were unable to do this against a Texans defense that, statistically, is not very good. It goes to show that statistics aren't always the best measure of a team. I think Houston's D is a little underratted, especially with the rise of Mario Williams this year. I give Houston props, everyone was shouting at them last year, Mario Williams first round over Reggie Bush? It is turning out to be a good decision for Houston, and Reggie Bush is slowly beginning to prove to us that he does not have the balls to be an NFL starting running back... Back to my focus though, the Bucs need just win this week against a pathetic, in all phases of football, Atlanta Falcons..
This week the Bucs gameplan should be to have a gameplan, or at least one they will stick to. If the Bucs hope to have success in the playoffs this year, past the first round, they are gonna have to show that they can muster up some offense. The Falcons defense is 24th in the NFL is yards allowed per game (343.5 ypg) and 22nd in the NFL with points allowed per game (23.5 ppg). The Falcons pass defense is 19th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and 21st in the NFL in touchdowns allowed per game, while the rush defense is 27th in yards allowed per game and 12th in touchdowns allowed per game. The Bucs need an offense that is clicking going into the playoffs. Their defense has been excellent all year, but a good offense makes them that much better and takes some of the pressure off of them. Their defense is noticeably tired. We aren't seeing the big hits from guys like Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips we were seeing earlier in the year. Barrett Ruud started the year off great, and was leading the NFL in tackles for the first four or five weeks of the season. Since then he has dropped to 15th in the NFL in tackles. The Bucs no doubt have a playoff quality defense, I would seriously consider them as the best defense in the league, with minimal bias, if not place them in the top 3. I dont quite see that playoff quality in their offense. The Bucs won the super bowl in 2003 with a sub par offense and great defense... However, there were no 2007 Patriots or Cowboys to beat that year. The Bucs defense is good but will not beat a Patriots team or Cowboys team without offense. So lets get some offense going against the Falcons, the momentum must begin somewhere, why not at home, against a division rival, to win the NFC South crown??
Jeff Garcia returns to the lineup and leads the Bucs NFL 19th ranked offense in yards per game, NFL 19th ranked offense in points per game against a weak Falcons defense... A Falcons team that is in shambles.. If the Bucs can't win this game, I am going to find it very difficult to place the Bucs past the second round of the playoffs, that is if they make it out of the first. This is a must win for the Bucs, not only to win the division, but for team morale, for momentum, for many reasons. I have a feeling they are gonna get it done..
The Bucs need to put their gameplan in place, and follow it.. I say the gameplan be pound the ball, pound the ball, pound the ball.. Garcia short pass, Garcia short pass, pound the ball, set up the deep play.. Tampa has done it effectively this year, with some consistency, but not with the consistency of teams like New England and Dallas. Coming down to the late phases of the season, consistency, momentum, rhythm are huge factors.. The Bucs need to start it here so it can carry over into the playoffs..
Jeff Garcia inserts leadership into the Buccaneer offense. There is no saying how important he is to the success of their offense. Garcia plays smart, and has all year. He hadn't thrown a pick going into week 6 I believe, and has only thrown 3 picks all year. Thats less than Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I don't put Garcia in their category when it comes to big times pass plays, although he has hit a few this year, but when it comes to smarts he is right up there with the elite QB's. Garcia will have to be the catalyst for a Buccaneer offensive surge if the Bucs hope to go deep into the playoffs. Teams have to pay extra attention to the Buccaneers pass game with Garcia in there, this opens up the Bucs rush game.. Earnest Graham will need Garcia to be consistent, and teams to recognize Tampa's ability to pass if he hopes to have future success, especially in the playoffs. Atlanta is the perfect place to get this started.
Tampa's defense will surely showup to play, but will the offense? The story of this weekends game, in Tampa Bay, 1:00 EDT, is the Buccaneer offense. They gotta show the football world something.
Final Score Tampa Bay 38, Atlanta 24
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Bucs offensive woes, Play Ratio
The Bucs offense has been less than average this year, they are 19th in the NFL with 19.6 yards per game. When you look at the numbers you see an offense with a lot of potential, that beats themselves.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Turnover ratio is crucial in judging a team. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in turnover ratio in the NFL are the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, respectively. These three teams have been the top three teams in the NFL over the past three years. 4th is the Seahawks who have also been a consistent team over the past three years. 5th is the Bucs. The Bucs sit atop the rankings in what many coaches regard as one of the most telling statistics in all of football, the turnover ratio. This at least says that the Bucs have a sense of stability and consistency with their offense and a defense that can create turnovers. Once you offense is stable, and by stable I mean not turning the ball over every few possessions, a coach can focus on moving the offense forward and using his weapons rather than having to focus on what a team must do to stop turning the ball over. This has the Bucs offense moving in the right direction.
Offensive time of possession per game is in other words what percentage of the game an offense has the ball. Why has New Englands offense put up 38 points per game this year? For one New England is a quick strike offense, for two they lead the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. This allows for many quick strikes. This keeps your defense on the sideline and keeps them energized. Having a low offensive time of possession is like a compounding error. Your offense is sitting on the sidelines so you can't score points. Your defense is on the field tiring down. The longer your defense is on the field the more tired your defense gets. It's likely that the longer your defense is on the field the longer they will be on the field. As they get more tired they become unable to stop drives allowing teams to be able to orchestrate long drives against them. To top it all off your offense has no chance to develop a rhythm. The Bucs are 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession per game. These are all problems they have had this year as a result of this statistic. Tampa's offensive time of possession per game is 29 minutes and 21 seconds. This means their defense is on the field for more than half of the game. This is not good for an offense like the Bucs who are not a quick strike offense. The Bucs rely on rhythm in their offense, rhythm that leads to long drives which eat up clock and energize a swarming-turrnover creating defense.
You may say that none of this even matters.. The Bucs offense doesn't even have potential.. I believe they do. The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play. I took a look at how yards per play correlates with a good offense. The seven teams better than them in yards per play are the Pats, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Five of these seven are the top five offenses in the NFL in terms of points per game, The Pats, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Browns are 1st through 5th, respectively. The Bucs are 19th in points per game. Why are the Bucs so terrible in points per game and so good in yards per play? Offensive time of possesion is one reason.. But what creates more offensive time of possesion? 3rd down conversions...
The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions made (62) and are 17th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%). The Bucs are 24th in the NFL in 3rd down attempts, largely because they are 30th in the NFL in offensive plays from scrimmage! So what we have is a Bucs offense that is 8th in the NFL in yards per play and 30th in the NFL in plays run from scrimmage (762). The root of the problem is little offensive time of possession. Little offensive time of possession sucks the rhythm out of your offense. No rhythm leads to a poor third down conversion rate. A poor third down conversion rate leads to less time on the field for your offense which leads to less points scored.
It should not come as a surprise that the Bucs defense is 13th in the NFL in offensive plays run against them (824). Their defense is, however, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6).
With this information I have created a new statistic to gauge a team's offense or defense by. I will call it the play ratio.
I will take the team's defensive plays in a game and subtract them from a team's offensive plays run in a game and see what I come up with..
New England, who dominates every positive statistic in the league is the best in the NFL with a +116 play ratio, meaning they have run 116 more offensive plays this year than their defense has faced. It should come as no surprise that the 49ers are last in the NFL with a -131 play ratio. The Bills are 31st with a -120, the Vikings are 30th with a -107, the Browns are 29th with a -94, the Lions are 28th with a -83, and the Bucs are 27th with a -62 play ratio. Strangely, the Cowboys are 26th with a -22 play ratio. The Cowboys also have the second best record in the NFL. The 49ers just plain don't win games, but the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Lions, and Cowboys, all of whom sit among the worst in play ratio are teams that win games with offense. The Cowboys are one of those statistical oddities but when I look at the statistics for yards per game allowed by defense in the NFL, here is what I see:
The 49ers who I mentioned above are 32nd in play ratio, are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game.
The Bills who I mentioned above are 31st in play ratio, are 30th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Vikings who I mentioned above are 30th in play ratio, are 25th in the NFL in yards per game.
The Browns who I mentioned above are 29th in play ratio, they are 32nd in in the NFL in plays per game.
The Lions who I mentioned above are 28th in play ratio, are 31st in the NFL in yards per game.
Finally, the Bucs who I mentioned above are 27th in play ratio, are 3rd in the NFL in plays per game.
(The Cowboys are 25th in play ratio, are 10th in the NFL in yards per game.)
This furthers my view that offensive time of possession is a compounding error. The teams who are among the worst in yards per game also have the largest ratio of defensive snaps compared to offensive snaps per game. It should be obvious that the more snaps your defense takes, the more yards per game would be put up against them. The Bucs defense takes a lot of snaps, yet they remain 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, and tops in many other defensive statistics. If only the Bucs had an offense that could convert on third downs and hold onto the ball longer, how much better their defense would be. Or maybe Im wrong... Maybe the Bucs defense thrives on rhythm...
A testament to the opposing forces the Bucs have working for them..
The Bucs are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but are 30th in the NFL in plays run, and 24th in the NFL in 3rd downs made.
The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per play, but are 27th in the NFL when you measure how many snaps their defense has taken opposed to their offense.
Further the Bucs are 8th in yards per play, but 22nd in the NFL in offensive time of possession.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Cap it off - Buc Philosophy
It hasn't been Tampa's offense that has been winning them games this season. Tampa Bay has been playing Tampa Bay football. Their defense beats up on opponents and is complemented by a consistent, pounding, and mistake-free offense. Tampa's offense has been consistent in that you know what to expect from them. They like to get a lead and then put together time consuming drive. Jeff Garcia has been able to use the pass like a short rush this year and Earnest Graham has shown that he knows how to finish a game. Tampa likes to pound the ball throughout the game, and when the run game starts to work Tampa stays with it. They especially like to pound it late in games when the defense is tired. Tampa doesn't have a big-play offense. Their offense is designed differently. They have an offense that is designed for long time-consuming drives. Their stats reflect this. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio and their offense has held the ball for just under 30 minutes a game. Tampa offense doesnt put up huge numbers but it is not a quick score offense. Tampa's offense will never put up huge numbers, not as long as John Gruden is the head coach. Tampa Bay does not do well in an offensive shootout. It is not their style. Tampa relies on their defense to shut down the opposing offense. Their offense then comes on the field to put together long scoring drives that eat up alot of clock, all the while keeping their D fresh. This is a great strategy but has bitten Tampa in the ass a few times this season. With this strategy there is not much room for error. A few times Tampa has put together these great ten to twelve minute drives and then turned the ball over at the end of them. Also you would expect a drive this long to end in a touchdown and when they end in field goals, more than a few times a game, that is counter-productive. If you have these long time consuming drives you may only have five possesions a game. If you turn it over once and all the others are ending in field goals then your only looking at 12 points a game. A good example is the Detroit game. Tampa had some great drives in that game. A few of them ended in turnovers, a few of them in field goals. It only took three quick scores from Detroit to win a game that Tampa should have won. You gotta cap off the drive.
Grahamallac breaks out
2 weeks since I've blogged..
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
Alot has happened in those weeks.
Sean Taylor died. R.I.P. and may his killers get what they deserve... whatever they may be, decided by powers greater than myself.. They were big badasses before, look at them now.. Assholes fixin' to be mincemeat.. HAHA..
Tampa defeated Washington 19-13 not even a day before Taylor died. Tampa almost through that game away but came away with a victory. Jeff Garcia suffered a deep bruise in his lower back..
That brings me to last week in what was no doubt Tampa's biggest game of the season. Luke McCown surprised alot of people with a great outing.. He got us the win with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice catch Jerramy Stevens.
Tampa now controls their own destiny and with a win in any of the remaining four weeks of the season win the division crown.
That brings us to this weeks matchup at the Houston Texans. Tampa has only played them once, and they dominated, holding the Texans to under 110 yards offensively for the entire game. That was back in 2003 I believe.
Both the Bucs and the Texans stand to be without their regular starting quarterbacks. Texans QB Matt Schaub has a dislocated shoulder and is less likely to play then Bucs QB Jeff Garcia who has a deep bruise to his lower back. The Texans will start backup Sage Rosenfels if necessary while the Bucs will start Luke McCown if necessary.
The Bucs offense will face off against a Texan defense that is 25th in the NFL in terms of yards per game and tied for 25th in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. Houston's rush D is 24th in the NFL in touchdowns allowed with 11 and 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Houston pass D is tied for 15th in the NFL with 17 pass TD's allowed and is 16th in pass yards allowed per game. Both facets of Houston's defense are sub-par and can and have been exploited this season.
Tampa should look to do what they always try to do in this matchup. If Tampa can get an early lead they can lull the Texans to sleep with long scoring drives. I see a definite possibility for a defensive touchdown in this matchup. The Texans lead the NFL with 31 turnovers while the Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with a +11 turnover ratio. An early turnover equals doom for the Texans. The Texan will HAVE to play mistake free football to even have a chance in this game. I can see former Best Buy employee and current Buc DE Greg White getting a sack or two in this one and maybe causing a turnover. I wouldnt be surprised to see rookie Buc DE Gaines Adams record his first career interception in this one either. White and Adams will be getting after whoever the Texans QB is all game.
On offense Tampa should key in on Texans WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has linebacker size (maybe a little tall, but linebacker weight) at the WR position, he's listed as 6'3" and 222 lbs. He's a handful for every defense he faces and seems to go over the 100 yard mark and score in almost all his games. Johnson reminds me of Terrell Owens (Owens is 6'3" 218 lbs) and would no doubt be as recognized as Owens in the NFL if he were on any team other than the Texans. The Bucs have hard hitting safeties, Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips, that put fear in opposing receivers working for them. They also have some dude named Ronde Barber and some dude named Brian Kelly providing coverage at the cornerback position (both are proven Buccaneer veterans and pro bowlers). It is because of these four, Jackson, Philips, Barber, and Kelly that Tampa Bay's pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game and 3rd in the NFL in touchdowns per game.
It doesn't matter who is rushing the ball for the Texans. Tampa has held their opponents to somewhere around 60 rushing yards per game over the course of their current four game winning streak. Whether Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, or whatever his name is Echemandu gets the ball this game I am looking for Tampa to continue this streak by not allowing more than 70 yards rushing combined between these gentleman. Ahman Green is a good back but is too banged up to pound this stingy Tampa rush D.
On defense the Bucs need to look out for Texans DE Mario Williams. Williams was No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and has been a force to be reckoned with. He is leading the Texans with eight sacks this year and could cause major problems for Tampa if left unchecked.
Earnest Graham shouldn't have problems running the ball against the Texans rush defense. Graham has four touchdowns and over 400 yards in his last four games combined. The Texans are giving up 122 yards per game on the ground this year and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. Houston is ranked 29th in the NFL as they are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, while Tampa is 5th in the NFL gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Over the past four games Graham has rushed the ball an average of 23.5 times per game. If I split the yards per rush that Houston has allowed this season with the yards per rush that the Bucs have gained I come up with 4.4 yards per rush. From this information I predict that Graham will continue his pace with another 100 yard game (103.4 yards to be exact) this week. I say he throws in not one, not two, but three touchdowns for good measure (Tampa will score three rush touchdowns, possibly four). If the Bucs get an early lead I have a feeling that Graham will get more than 24 carries as well, he may be closer to the 34 carries he has earlier in the season against Arizona. An early lead will equate to Tampa pounding the ball and riding the Grahamallac to victory. As well as Graham has done this season, and I have become a pretty big fan of his, I still miss Cadillac.
The rush will be the main offensive focus for Tampa in this one. Whomever starts at QB need just be consistent and not turn the ball over. If it's McCown I just hope he doesn't try to do to much. Whomever the QB is that starts needs to just focus on getting first downs consistently and should leave the scoring to the run game, or the kicker.
Early lead, pound the ball with Graham, consistent and mistake free pass game focused on first downs, Matt Bryant not missing field goals, pressure from DE's Gaines Adams and Greg White, and a secondary that installs fear in the hearts of Texan WR's (particularly Andre Johnson) equals success in this one.
Tampa Bay 34 Houston Texans 10
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Where its at
First off I would like to thank the beaten (previously 0-8) St. Louis Rams for laying the smackdown on the hopeful Saints... sorry New Orleans it's not your year... The Saints go marching down... down a game in the standings... and they lost to a team who hadn't won a game all year... consistency...
Secondly I would like to thank the Atlanta Falcons (who the Bucs play this week) and the Golden Boy Joey Harrington for stomping the panthers into the mud... and smearing Vinny Testaverde's dusty old face in it.
The Bucs are alone atop the NFC South and both the aforementioned teams had a chance last weekend to tie them up there. Instead these teams dropped games and thats really good for Tampa.
In fact of the nine times that Tampa has been in first place this late in the season, they have made the playoffs eight.
The Bucs face off with the Falcons this weekend in Atlanta, but it doesn't matter. Falcons fans are still having an identity crisis after finding out the face of their team was a two-bit criminal, a mindless psychopath who would have killed people next had he not been caught. Seriously, isn't killing animals one of the first hints of sociopathic behavior? So Atlanta goes from a Stone Cold Dog Killer to a Golden Piano Player?. Are you gonna tell me the fans are excited? As if finding out your star player got pleasure in murdering animals wasn't enough the Falcons owner Arthur Blank goes and signs proven failure Joey Harrington. Why didn't they sign Testaverde? Vinny was available up until Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme went down. The Falcons fans don't care so this might as well be a home game for the Bucs.
If the Bucs can shut down the run like they did the other week, and they did so against a much better rushing attack in the Cardinals Edgerrin James, then they should win the game. It's not like I should be worried about Joey Harrington hurting us through the air, should I?
The Buccaneers pass defense is now rated 3rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd in pass touchdowns in allowed with six. The Seahawks defense has only allowed five pass touchdowns this year but are 20th in the NFL in yards per game against them. The only defenses with less yards per game against them are Pittsburgh and Indianpolis yet both these teams have given up 10 and 8 touchdowns through the air respectively. With these statistics I make my argument for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the best passing defense in the NFL. That is why I'm not too worried about the Golden Boy having a "breakout" game.
The Buccaneers rush defense is ranked 18th in the NFL in yards per game but only 8 teams have allowed less than the Bucs 3.8 yards per rush. The Bucs are tied for 26th with nine rushing touchdowns allowed but only seven teams have had more rushing plays run on them. The Bucs defense in general is right in the middle at 17th in the NFL in total plays run against them (558). Only 3 teams however allow less than the Buccaneers 4.6 yards per play. Only three teams have allowed less than the Buccaneers 144 points this season and therefore only three teams have less than the Buccaneers 16 points per game average allowed.
The Falcons are 30th in the NFL as they only average 15 points per game. Even the 0-9 Dolphins have scored more points then the Falcons. The Falcons pass attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL in yards per game and 27th in the NFL in touchdowns per game. The Falcons pass attack has a rating of 70.8 while the Buccaneers opponents are averaging a pass rating of 70.9. The Falcons stand to gain a tenth of a percentage point in their passer rating in this game, WOOOO-HOOOO. Thats actually a joke. There is no correlation between the statement I made two statements ago and the last one. Only two teams in the NFL have held opponents to a lower passer rating than the Bucs have.
If the Falcons are to win this game it is going to have to come from somewhere other than their offense. Falcons CB Deangelo Hall is always a threat to pick one and run it back. They should think about putting Hall back on special teams as well to see if they can make something happen. The one bright spot in the Falcons team has been how many turnovers they have been able to force this year. The Falcons are tops in the NFC with a +9 turnover ratio, meaning they have taken the ball away from their opponent 9 more times then they have given the ball to their opponent. Tampa has been efficient in the turnover department this year with the exception of a two game strech when they went -5 in the turnover column. The Bucs are still +3 in the turnover column and fifth in the NFC. If you take away that two game strech where they went -5 then they have been one of the most efficient teams in the NFL this year when it comes to turnovers.
WHERE ITS AT
A coach always wants to be up in the turnover column at the end of the game. If you have a dynamic offense then it is not always necessary, a team like the Patriots can turn the ball over and still win games (even though they never do, 1st in the NFL with +11 turnover ratio). It is very important for the Bucs to win the turnover battle in this upcoming game with the Falcons.
If the Bucs win the turnover battle, they win the game... Bottom line.
If the Bucs don't turn the ball over at all they will hold the Falcons under 6 points.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31 Atlanta 3
P.S. Michael Pittman is back!! Naples, Florida native Earnest Graham remains the teams starter..
Secondly I would like to thank the Atlanta Falcons (who the Bucs play this week) and the Golden Boy Joey Harrington for stomping the panthers into the mud... and smearing Vinny Testaverde's dusty old face in it.
The Bucs are alone atop the NFC South and both the aforementioned teams had a chance last weekend to tie them up there. Instead these teams dropped games and thats really good for Tampa.
In fact of the nine times that Tampa has been in first place this late in the season, they have made the playoffs eight.
The Bucs face off with the Falcons this weekend in Atlanta, but it doesn't matter. Falcons fans are still having an identity crisis after finding out the face of their team was a two-bit criminal, a mindless psychopath who would have killed people next had he not been caught. Seriously, isn't killing animals one of the first hints of sociopathic behavior? So Atlanta goes from a Stone Cold Dog Killer to a Golden Piano Player?. Are you gonna tell me the fans are excited? As if finding out your star player got pleasure in murdering animals wasn't enough the Falcons owner Arthur Blank goes and signs proven failure Joey Harrington. Why didn't they sign Testaverde? Vinny was available up until Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme went down. The Falcons fans don't care so this might as well be a home game for the Bucs.
If the Bucs can shut down the run like they did the other week, and they did so against a much better rushing attack in the Cardinals Edgerrin James, then they should win the game. It's not like I should be worried about Joey Harrington hurting us through the air, should I?
The Buccaneers pass defense is now rated 3rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd in pass touchdowns in allowed with six. The Seahawks defense has only allowed five pass touchdowns this year but are 20th in the NFL in yards per game against them. The only defenses with less yards per game against them are Pittsburgh and Indianpolis yet both these teams have given up 10 and 8 touchdowns through the air respectively. With these statistics I make my argument for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the best passing defense in the NFL. That is why I'm not too worried about the Golden Boy having a "breakout" game.
The Buccaneers rush defense is ranked 18th in the NFL in yards per game but only 8 teams have allowed less than the Bucs 3.8 yards per rush. The Bucs are tied for 26th with nine rushing touchdowns allowed but only seven teams have had more rushing plays run on them. The Bucs defense in general is right in the middle at 17th in the NFL in total plays run against them (558). Only 3 teams however allow less than the Buccaneers 4.6 yards per play. Only three teams have allowed less than the Buccaneers 144 points this season and therefore only three teams have less than the Buccaneers 16 points per game average allowed.
The Falcons are 30th in the NFL as they only average 15 points per game. Even the 0-9 Dolphins have scored more points then the Falcons. The Falcons pass attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL in yards per game and 27th in the NFL in touchdowns per game. The Falcons pass attack has a rating of 70.8 while the Buccaneers opponents are averaging a pass rating of 70.9. The Falcons stand to gain a tenth of a percentage point in their passer rating in this game, WOOOO-HOOOO. Thats actually a joke. There is no correlation between the statement I made two statements ago and the last one. Only two teams in the NFL have held opponents to a lower passer rating than the Bucs have.
If the Falcons are to win this game it is going to have to come from somewhere other than their offense. Falcons CB Deangelo Hall is always a threat to pick one and run it back. They should think about putting Hall back on special teams as well to see if they can make something happen. The one bright spot in the Falcons team has been how many turnovers they have been able to force this year. The Falcons are tops in the NFC with a +9 turnover ratio, meaning they have taken the ball away from their opponent 9 more times then they have given the ball to their opponent. Tampa has been efficient in the turnover department this year with the exception of a two game strech when they went -5 in the turnover column. The Bucs are still +3 in the turnover column and fifth in the NFC. If you take away that two game strech where they went -5 then they have been one of the most efficient teams in the NFL this year when it comes to turnovers.
WHERE ITS AT
A coach always wants to be up in the turnover column at the end of the game. If you have a dynamic offense then it is not always necessary, a team like the Patriots can turn the ball over and still win games (even though they never do, 1st in the NFL with +11 turnover ratio). It is very important for the Bucs to win the turnover battle in this upcoming game with the Falcons.
If the Bucs win the turnover battle, they win the game... Bottom line.
If the Bucs don't turn the ball over at all they will hold the Falcons under 6 points.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31 Atlanta 3
P.S. Michael Pittman is back!! Naples, Florida native Earnest Graham remains the teams starter..
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Chinese Restaurant Episode II
The 4-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 4:05 p.m. The game will be played at the Buccaneers home, Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL.
Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).
Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.
Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.
***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***
Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.
***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***
The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.
Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense
Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.
Summary
Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.
Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.
Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.
Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.
X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.
In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13
Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).
Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.
Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.
***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***
Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.
***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***
The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.
Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense
Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.
Summary
Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.
Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.
Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.
Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.
X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.
In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13
Monday, October 22, 2007
showing signs of promise
The Bucs lost to the Lions 23-16 yesterday in their toughest loss of the season.
Apparently Mike Golic, co-host of ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning radio show, didn't look at the numbers of the game as he has the Detroit Lions as the fourth best team in the NFC after this loss.
This was a fluke loss for Tampa. I know all that matters is wins but take away two plays and Tampa would have dominated the game.
Tampa outgained Detroit by 144 yards on offense as they put up 422 yards to Detroit's 278. Time of posession also went Tampa's way as Tampa had an 11 minute advantage in time of posession, Tampa had 35 minutes 50 seconds to Detroit 24 minutes and 10 seconds. Tampa ran 30 more plays on offense than Detroit did, Tampa ran 77 plays to Detroit's 47 plays. If you control the clock, run more offensive plays, and gain more yardage than a team then just basic logic tells me that you should win.
Tampa had their first drive stalled and their punt blocked to begin the game. Detroit took advantage and put a field through the uprights. Tampa's second drive showed some promise, they were moving the ball, then Jeff Garcia fumbles and Detroit makes them pay. Detroit scored a touchdown and were off to a quick 10 point lead. Tampa's next drive took time off the clock and ended with a Ike Hilliard touchdown reception. Tampa forced Detroit to punt on their next drive then drove down the field again only to miss the game tying field goal. They then allowed Detroit to drive close enough to put a field goal through before the half. At halftime the score was 13-6. Tampa stopped Detroit's first drive of the 3rd quarter but werent able to do anything with their own first drive of the 3rd, it ended with another punt. The following possession Detroit drove down for another field goal, score Det 16, TB 7. The ensuing drive Tampa took the ball from the 20 after a touch back and drove all the way down to Detroit's one yard line. It looked like it was gonna be a 16-14 when Garcia bobbled the snap and Detroit recovered on their own seven yard line. Tampa's defense looked flat and emotionless as Detroit capped off a 93 yard drive with a 32 yard run off a reverse from rookie WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson broke 3 or 4 tackles on the play and Tampa's defense was officially demoralized. Detroit 23, Tampa 7. Tampa would score on their next possession after another nice long drive of 78 yards capped by a 4 yard touchdown reception by Bucs WR Maurice Stovall. Tampa went for a two point conversion and missed. Detroit 23, Tampa 13. Tampa would kick the onside kick, recover, and drive down the field another 29 yards for a field goal. Detroit 23, Tampa 16. Tampa had pulled within a touchdown and would need to recover another onside kick if they were to have a chance. There was a mad dash for the ball and Tampa nearly recovered but no marbles. Detroit ran out the rest of the clock and Tampa was handed their 3rd loss of the season.
It goes to show that in football it's more about each play then the entire collection of plays. Tampa had a number of good drives on which they were able to move the ball and control the clock. If Tampa would have made that game tying field goal in the beginning of the game perhaps it would have gone down different. I felt throughout the game that if Tampa was just able to get a lead, if only a 3 point lead, that they would be able to run out the clock and win the game. They moved the ball too well, and their offense was too sharp to lose the game. Their defense on the other hand didn't play with the same fire that I have seem them play with all year. Barrett Ruud, the NFL leading tackler, only had two tackles. Tarvaris Jackson and Jermaine Phillips didn't seem to be coming up and popping guys like you usually see them do. I have loved to watch Tampa's D play all season, this game I saw nothing special out of them. You gotta expect the defense to turn it up next week as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many consider to be among the top five teams in the AFC.
Earnest Graham stepped up his role, he had 10 rushes for 92 yards and 13 receptions for 99 yards. Jeff Garcia at one point completed 18 straight passes, tying the Buccaneer franchise record. Garcia remains one of two starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have not thrown an interception this season. The other is David Garrard who faces off against Indianapolis tonight.
Tampa hosts Jacksonville this weekend in what is sure to be a defensive battle.
Apparently Mike Golic, co-host of ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning radio show, didn't look at the numbers of the game as he has the Detroit Lions as the fourth best team in the NFC after this loss.
This was a fluke loss for Tampa. I know all that matters is wins but take away two plays and Tampa would have dominated the game.
Tampa outgained Detroit by 144 yards on offense as they put up 422 yards to Detroit's 278. Time of posession also went Tampa's way as Tampa had an 11 minute advantage in time of posession, Tampa had 35 minutes 50 seconds to Detroit 24 minutes and 10 seconds. Tampa ran 30 more plays on offense than Detroit did, Tampa ran 77 plays to Detroit's 47 plays. If you control the clock, run more offensive plays, and gain more yardage than a team then just basic logic tells me that you should win.
Tampa had their first drive stalled and their punt blocked to begin the game. Detroit took advantage and put a field through the uprights. Tampa's second drive showed some promise, they were moving the ball, then Jeff Garcia fumbles and Detroit makes them pay. Detroit scored a touchdown and were off to a quick 10 point lead. Tampa's next drive took time off the clock and ended with a Ike Hilliard touchdown reception. Tampa forced Detroit to punt on their next drive then drove down the field again only to miss the game tying field goal. They then allowed Detroit to drive close enough to put a field goal through before the half. At halftime the score was 13-6. Tampa stopped Detroit's first drive of the 3rd quarter but werent able to do anything with their own first drive of the 3rd, it ended with another punt. The following possession Detroit drove down for another field goal, score Det 16, TB 7. The ensuing drive Tampa took the ball from the 20 after a touch back and drove all the way down to Detroit's one yard line. It looked like it was gonna be a 16-14 when Garcia bobbled the snap and Detroit recovered on their own seven yard line. Tampa's defense looked flat and emotionless as Detroit capped off a 93 yard drive with a 32 yard run off a reverse from rookie WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson broke 3 or 4 tackles on the play and Tampa's defense was officially demoralized. Detroit 23, Tampa 7. Tampa would score on their next possession after another nice long drive of 78 yards capped by a 4 yard touchdown reception by Bucs WR Maurice Stovall. Tampa went for a two point conversion and missed. Detroit 23, Tampa 13. Tampa would kick the onside kick, recover, and drive down the field another 29 yards for a field goal. Detroit 23, Tampa 16. Tampa had pulled within a touchdown and would need to recover another onside kick if they were to have a chance. There was a mad dash for the ball and Tampa nearly recovered but no marbles. Detroit ran out the rest of the clock and Tampa was handed their 3rd loss of the season.
It goes to show that in football it's more about each play then the entire collection of plays. Tampa had a number of good drives on which they were able to move the ball and control the clock. If Tampa would have made that game tying field goal in the beginning of the game perhaps it would have gone down different. I felt throughout the game that if Tampa was just able to get a lead, if only a 3 point lead, that they would be able to run out the clock and win the game. They moved the ball too well, and their offense was too sharp to lose the game. Their defense on the other hand didn't play with the same fire that I have seem them play with all year. Barrett Ruud, the NFL leading tackler, only had two tackles. Tarvaris Jackson and Jermaine Phillips didn't seem to be coming up and popping guys like you usually see them do. I have loved to watch Tampa's D play all season, this game I saw nothing special out of them. You gotta expect the defense to turn it up next week as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many consider to be among the top five teams in the AFC.
Earnest Graham stepped up his role, he had 10 rushes for 92 yards and 13 receptions for 99 yards. Jeff Garcia at one point completed 18 straight passes, tying the Buccaneer franchise record. Garcia remains one of two starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have not thrown an interception this season. The other is David Garrard who faces off against Indianapolis tonight.
Tampa hosts Jacksonville this weekend in what is sure to be a defensive battle.
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