Tampa Bay: October 2007

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Chinese Restaurant Episode II

The 4-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 4:05 p.m. The game will be played at the Buccaneers home, Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL.

Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).

Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.

Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.

***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***

Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.

***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***

The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.

Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense

Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.

Summary

Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.

Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.

Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.

Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.

X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.

In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13

Monday, October 22, 2007

showing signs of promise

The Bucs lost to the Lions 23-16 yesterday in their toughest loss of the season.

Apparently Mike Golic, co-host of ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning radio show, didn't look at the numbers of the game as he has the Detroit Lions as the fourth best team in the NFC after this loss.

This was a fluke loss for Tampa. I know all that matters is wins but take away two plays and Tampa would have dominated the game.

Tampa outgained Detroit by 144 yards on offense as they put up 422 yards to Detroit's 278. Time of posession also went Tampa's way as Tampa had an 11 minute advantage in time of posession, Tampa had 35 minutes 50 seconds to Detroit 24 minutes and 10 seconds. Tampa ran 30 more plays on offense than Detroit did, Tampa ran 77 plays to Detroit's 47 plays. If you control the clock, run more offensive plays, and gain more yardage than a team then just basic logic tells me that you should win.

Tampa had their first drive stalled and their punt blocked to begin the game. Detroit took advantage and put a field through the uprights. Tampa's second drive showed some promise, they were moving the ball, then Jeff Garcia fumbles and Detroit makes them pay. Detroit scored a touchdown and were off to a quick 10 point lead. Tampa's next drive took time off the clock and ended with a Ike Hilliard touchdown reception. Tampa forced Detroit to punt on their next drive then drove down the field again only to miss the game tying field goal. They then allowed Detroit to drive close enough to put a field goal through before the half. At halftime the score was 13-6. Tampa stopped Detroit's first drive of the 3rd quarter but werent able to do anything with their own first drive of the 3rd, it ended with another punt. The following possession Detroit drove down for another field goal, score Det 16, TB 7. The ensuing drive Tampa took the ball from the 20 after a touch back and drove all the way down to Detroit's one yard line. It looked like it was gonna be a 16-14 when Garcia bobbled the snap and Detroit recovered on their own seven yard line. Tampa's defense looked flat and emotionless as Detroit capped off a 93 yard drive with a 32 yard run off a reverse from rookie WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson broke 3 or 4 tackles on the play and Tampa's defense was officially demoralized. Detroit 23, Tampa 7. Tampa would score on their next possession after another nice long drive of 78 yards capped by a 4 yard touchdown reception by Bucs WR Maurice Stovall. Tampa went for a two point conversion and missed. Detroit 23, Tampa 13. Tampa would kick the onside kick, recover, and drive down the field another 29 yards for a field goal. Detroit 23, Tampa 16. Tampa had pulled within a touchdown and would need to recover another onside kick if they were to have a chance. There was a mad dash for the ball and Tampa nearly recovered but no marbles. Detroit ran out the rest of the clock and Tampa was handed their 3rd loss of the season.

It goes to show that in football it's more about each play then the entire collection of plays. Tampa had a number of good drives on which they were able to move the ball and control the clock. If Tampa would have made that game tying field goal in the beginning of the game perhaps it would have gone down different. I felt throughout the game that if Tampa was just able to get a lead, if only a 3 point lead, that they would be able to run out the clock and win the game. They moved the ball too well, and their offense was too sharp to lose the game. Their defense on the other hand didn't play with the same fire that I have seem them play with all year. Barrett Ruud, the NFL leading tackler, only had two tackles. Tarvaris Jackson and Jermaine Phillips didn't seem to be coming up and popping guys like you usually see them do. I have loved to watch Tampa's D play all season, this game I saw nothing special out of them. You gotta expect the defense to turn it up next week as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many consider to be among the top five teams in the AFC.

Earnest Graham stepped up his role, he had 10 rushes for 92 yards and 13 receptions for 99 yards. Jeff Garcia at one point completed 18 straight passes, tying the Buccaneer franchise record. Garcia remains one of two starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have not thrown an interception this season. The other is David Garrard who faces off against Indianapolis tonight.

Tampa hosts Jacksonville this weekend in what is sure to be a defensive battle.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Meet me at the line of scrimmage

Injuries

Injuries are part of the game of football, you just hate to see them. Cadillac Williams sustained a tear to his patellar tendon this Sunday in the game against the Carolina Panthers. Doctors have said it is season ending and potentially career threatening.

"That injury at the running back position is a tough one to come back 100 percent from," said Dr. Johnny Benjamin, chairman of orthopedics at Indian River Medical Center in Vero Beach. "Leg strength and drive are very important ... it's hard to generate after this type of injury."

The tendon usually tears off the bone of the kneecap, and to repair it, strong sutures are tied to the tendon and then passed through holes drilled in the kneecap. These strong sutures are tied in place to pull the torn edge of the tendon back to its proper attachment on the kneecap.

I hate to see it happen to Cadillac. Best of luck Caddy, and may you return, stronger than ever.

REDEMPTION

While in the spirit of bad news I guess it would be proper to announce that Bucs left tackle Luke Petitgout is also out for the season with what is believed to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. Petitgout's injury, while serious, is not career threatening.

Where do we go from here?

Tampa Bay faces their toughest opponent yet this coming Sunday in the Indianapolis Colts. Micheal Pittman is going to be the teams feature back in place of Williams. Earnest Graham also will see more time with the ball. I was just talking about the depth of Tampa's backfield last week too. Tampa has promoted rookie running back Kenneth Darby from the practice squad to the team's 53 man roster.

I have a bright idea. Why don't we have Ronde Barber go ask his identical twin brother Tiki Barber for a little favor? How about one more go at it Tiki? Or does CBS have you locked down in your pretty little football analyst contract?

Tampa has some depth at the tackle position and will be able to replace LT Luke Petitgout. His successor is Donald Penn, a 6'5" 305 pound beast. Here's what he had to say about his shot:

"I always watch that Tiki Barber commercial when he's driving that Escalade and he's talking about his opportunity, Every time I see that commercial, I'm like, Man, I'm just waiting on mine and I've got to do it because you only get one." This guy feels like he has something to prove and I suspect he will fill in well for Petitgout. Tampa has promoted tackle Dennis Roland from the practice squad to the 53 man roster. Penn has even more to prove now.

This Sunday will be rough but I remain optimistic. I have echoes in my head of the 2003 Bucs Colts matchup in which the Colts scored 21 points with less that 4 minutes left in the game to go on and win the game in overtime, the biggest comeback in NFL history in the 4 minute timeframe. REDEMPTION

Peyton Manning is as solid as they come for a team leader. The only way, and I emphasize the word only, to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts is to keep pressure on Manning throughout the game. Good passing beats good coverage. Manning is so accurate and Colts wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are such good route runners that even the best coverage will not shut down the Colts pass attack.

Tampa Bay D vs. Indy Offensive line

If Tampa wins this battle they win the game. Tampa's D line has the opportunity to control the game Sunday. Peyton Manning has only been sacked three times this whole year. In 2006 Peyton Manning was 34th in the league in number of times sacked with 14. There are only 32 teams in the league. Other teams' backups were sacked more than Peyton last year! In 2005 Manning was 37th, in 2004 he was 35th, in 2003 he was 31st. Peyton Manning has been sacked less times over the past four years, 62 times sacked, than Lions QB Jon Kitna was last year alone, 63 times sacked. The Colts offensive line is solid, year in and year out. The upside of these statistics is that Peyton is not used to being sacked. He's not even used to being pressured. If Tampa can pressure him, they throw him out of his rhythm, next thing you know Mannings Mind is going nuts. This is when you see him and his huge shiny forehead on the sideline crying like a baby. As good as Manning is, he has it easier than any QB in the league. Manning has never had a concussion, he's hardly even been hit, yet he cries like a battered wife when something goes wrong. Tampa has recorded eight sacks this season. It is my prediction that if Tampa gets 5 this Sunday vs. the Colts they win the game.

Tampa Bay D vs. Indy pass attack

WR Marvin Harrison very possibly will be out with an injury for this Sunday's matchup. Harrison only makes up 22% of Indy's NFL 6th ranked pass attack but has been historically good vs. the Bucs averaging a touchdown and more than 100 yards each time he plays them. WR Reggie Wayne, now more dangerous than Harrison was when the Bucs last faced the Colts, is making up 29% of the pass attack. However, the guy to watch out for is the underrated Colts TE Dallas Clark. This guy is making up 24% of the Colts pass attack and has more touchdowns than both Harrison and Wayne. TE's are also very difficult to cover since TE's are usually covered by linebackers. Tampa has some great coverage linebackers however in Cato June and Tampa Bay legend and future HOF'er Derrick Brooks. If you look deeper into these percentages there is perhaps a more important observation. Peyton Manning spreads the ball around, 22% to Harrison, 29% to Wayne, 24% to Clark, and the other 25% distributed among Indy's other Wide receiver. Last week we saw a Carolina team that had one man, Carolina WR Steve Smith, as nearly half of their pass attack. Peyton Manning leads a versatile pass attack which calls for good all around defense. Tampa has the talent to shut this pass attack down. Ronde Barber will lead the coverage side of the D while the "lumberjack" Jermaine Phillips will lay wood to receivers, installing fear, and throwing them off their A games.

Tampa Bay D vs. Indy rush attack

Indy running back Joseph Addai will possibly be on the bench this week with a shoulder injury. Addai is nearly Indy's entire ground attack. 73% of the yards Indy have gained on the ground this season have come on the back of Addai. This leaves the Colts with RB's Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton, and Clifton Dawson. These three had zero NFL carries coming into the 2007 season, combined. What I see is a very inexperienced running back core against a Tampa D that is now 5th in the NFL in total defense. My instincts tell me these backs won't do well but you have to leave the possibilities open. If Addai does play that will pit Indy's NFL 7th ranked rush offense versus Tampa Bay's 20th ranked rush defense. In fairness to being 20th ranked the majority of rush yards against Tampa have come late in games when Tampa is winning.

Jeff Garcia and gang vs. Indy pass D

The Indianapolis Colts are 7th in the NFL this year in pass defense. in 2006 Indy was 2nd in the NFL in pass defense. Jeff Garcia will have to step it up this week if his NFL 24th ranked pass offense hopes to have success against this D. Tampa's offensive line will have to step it up especially. Tampa left tackle Luke Petitgout is out for the season and 2nd year player Donald Penn will get his first start. Penn will have to travel to hostile territory and guard QB Jeff Garcia's blind side against one of the best pass rushers in the game, Indy DE Dwight Freeney. Penn's first start will be a test for him and if he passes you can expect to see more of him as the season plays out. Indy is tied for 18th with eight sacks this year and Jeff Garcia has only been sacked 4 times. Garcia hasn't turned the ball over a single time this season, no fumbles, no interceptions, and will need to keep that up if he hopes for victory Sunday.

Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham vs. Indy rush D

This is the second most important battle Tampa will need to win if they expect victory Sunday. With Carnell out for the season these two know they need to step it up. Tampa's rush attack is ranked 8th in the league. Cadillac Williams made up 38% of the rush attack with 208 of the 548 rushing yards Tampa has this year. Pittman makes up 31% of the rush attack, and Graham 25%. These guys have much larger roles now but face an Indy D that was last in the NFL last year in rush D. Indy's rush D is 22nd this year. Indy safety Bob Sanders is, as a safety, important to Indy's pass defense, but is a huge component of Indy's rush D as well. Bob Sanders just might be out this week with a rib injury. The absence of Bob Sanders reverts Indy's rush D back to that 32nd ranked form. The loss of Bob Sanders equates to the loss of a leader, an anchor on your D, a guy whos willing to come up from the safety position to pop a running back uxexpectedly.

Recipe for Success:

This week we eat horse?

If Tampa sacks Peyton Manning five times this week they win. Those five sacks must equal pressure throughout the game however. Five sacks against Indy is a little far fetched so I'll leave it at pressure on Manning throughout the game. That would be a victory for the D line. A Tampa D line controlling their line of scrimmage coupled with a Tampa O line controlling their line of scrimmage, opening up holes for Pittman and Graham to run through, cooks up victory for the Bucs this week.

There's a lot on the line in this one. With a loss Tampa could fall out of first place, and Manning and his shiny forehead go into the bye week 5-0. A win and I get to see clips of Manning drooling and babbling like a two-year old on the sideline. It also spells redemption from the 2003 Indy comeback and resiliency after two huge injuries last week. A win this week puts Tampa Bay among super bowl contenders! I had to say it.

Final Score:

Tampa Bay 34 Indy 31

Head to Head

Tampa has won two of the last three against the Colts but hasn't beat them since 1997.

The Bucs and Colts have only played 5 times, Tampa leads the matchup 3-2.

QB Peyton Manning, in one career game vs. Tampa, is 34 of 47 passing with 386 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

WR Marvin Harrison, in 2 career games vs. Tampa, has 14 receptions for 233 yards and two touchdowns.

WR Reggie Wayne, in one career game vs. Tampa, has 4 receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns.

None of the running backs on the Colts roster have faced Tampa.

QB Jeff Garcia, in two career games vs. the Colts, has a passer rating of 113.1.

RB Michael Pittman, in one career game against the Colts, has 16 carries for 106 yards.

None of the WR's on Tampa have faced off against the Colts.

Tribute to Carnell "Cadillac" Williams

Cadilliac Williams out for the season, and possibly forever, with a potentially career threatening tear to his patellar tendon.

Scroll down for a special tribute song to our beloved "Caddy" , Total Eclipse of the Heart as sung in the style of Dan Finnerty, the wedding singer in Old School.