Chinese Restaurant Episode II

The 4-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 4:05 p.m. The game will be played at the Buccaneers home, Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL.

Tampa is undefeated at home this year (3-0) and while Jacksonville is undefeated on the road this season (2-0).

Jacksonville will be without starting QB David Garrard who could be out as long as a month with an ankle injury. David Garrard is a big piece to the Jaguar offense as he ranks fourth among active QB's in passer rating (102.9) and is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL yet to throw an interception this year. The other interception-less QB is Tampa Bay's own, Jeff Garcia.

Jacksonville Pass Offense vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

First off, Tampa will have to play with a lot more fervor than they did last week at Detroit where they beat themselves. Tampa comes home and I expect their defense to be fired up for this matchup. Tampa Bay's defense is the NFL's 5th ranked team against the pass this year, in terms of pass yardage allowed. They face off against the NFL's 26th ranked pass offense, in terms of pass yardage, in the Jaguars. To make matters worse for the Jaguars they will be without the backbone of their passing attack, starting QB David Garrard. QB Quincy Gray will get the start in place of Garrard. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing touchdowns with only 6 in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay on the other hand is tied for 2nd in the NFL with only 5 passing touchdowns allowed in 7 games this year. This is why I see the Jacksonville pass attack as a non-factor in this Sundays game.

***Jacksonville Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Rush Defense***

Jacksonville is missing starting QB David Garrard and faces off against a Tampa D that has been very good against the pass this year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. For these reasons the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have to step it up this week in Tampa. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew make up the NFL's 3rd ranked rush offense, in terms of yardage, and the NFL's 11th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. They face off against a Tampa Bay D that is the NFL's 21st ranked team in terms of yardage and the 25th ranked team in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville will rely heavily on their rush attack in the game this weekend. As long as Tampa is efficient in other facets of their game and remain turnoverless they will win the game if they hold the Jacksonville rush attack under 85 yards. This will be difficult as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are an excellent one-two punch and have only been held under 100 yards once this year, week one at Tennessee.

***Tampa Bay Pass Offense vs. Jacksonville Pass Defense***

The NFL's 2nd best quarterback, in terms of quarterback rating, leads the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of both pass yardage and pass touchdowns this week against the Jags. The Jags are the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of passing yardage but sit alone at the top of the NFL as the top ranked team in terms of passing touchdowns allowed with four. This is not a bad thing for Tampa however as half of their touchdowns have come by way of the rush (7 of 14 Tampa Bay touchdowns this season were rushing TD's). This pits the NFL's 18th ranked pass offense in terms of yardage in the Buccaneers against the NFL's 17th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage in the Jaguars. This is an important matchup for the Buccaneers. A big majority of their yardage will have to come through the air as the majority of their veteran leadership is in their passing attack. Jacksonville has a rush defense equally as good as their pass defense and Tampa has less leadership at the running back position.

Tampa Bay Rush Offense vs. Jacksonville Rush Defense

Jacksonville is the NFL's 13th ranked rush defense in terms of yardage and the NFL's 18th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed. Tampa Bay is the NFL's 19th ranked rush offense in terms of yardage and the 5th ranked in terms of rushing touchdowns scored. These numbers may be deceiving however, Tampa Bay has a very inexperienced starting tailback in Earnest Graham and little depth at the position (they did recently sign former Minnesota Vikings starter Michael Bennet). Jacksonville has been a top rushing defense for years and have been known as a run stopping team. I think it is more important for Tampa to focus on their pass offense for yardage. When they get inside the red zone, they may wish to pound it more as Jacksonville has good enough to only allow four passing touchdowns this year. Also if Tampa can get an early lead they should be able to use a combination of rushing and passing to run the clock. Tampa ran it's pass offense like a rush offense last week. At one point QB Jeff Garcia completed 18 straight passes, a Buccaneer record for a single game, to keep the clock running on long drives. Graham also ran very well last week but against a Detroit Lions defense that isnt proven and are notoriously bad at tackling.

Summary

Jacksonville's bottom ranked pass offense should be a non-factor this week without starting QB David Garrard against a 5th ranked Tampa Bay pass defense.

Tampa Bay's rush defense vs. the Jags rush offense is the key matchup this week. Jacksonville will have to rely heavily on the rush this week as they are without their starting QB against a great Tampa pass offense. Further, Tampa's rush defense has been it's weakest point this season. Tampa should seek to strenghthen themselves in that area this week and if they are able to hold the tandem of Jags RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to 85 yards or less they will win the game.

Tampa Bay's pass offense has the best chance to be productive against a well rounded Jacksonville defense. TB's pass offense has the veteran leadership in place and I leadership will be a big factor this Sunday. Tampa should use their pass offense to gain the majority of their yardage and if they get ahead they should use it, as they did last week, as a clock killer.

Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham is inexperienced runner who faces off against a proven and experienced Jaguar rush defense. Tampa's rush attack should by no means be abandoned but used smartly. Tampa should avoid the rush on "long" downs (downs of 7 yards of more needed for first down), especially 2nd and 3rd's. Tampa should use a combination of their rush attack and their West Coast Offense, which emphasizes short passes, to run the clock if they can get an early lead. Tampa should also turn to the run inside the red zone as Jacksonville has only allowed four pass touchdowns all year, tops in the NFL.

X Factor: Kicker Matt Bryant can't MISS this week. He will kick a career high in field goals.

In week 4 the Bucs provided the Tampa Bay area Chinese restaurants with a key ingredient for their General Tso's and other "chicken" based dishes. I hope Tampa can do the same this week.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 19 Jacksonville 13